The In-Depth Northeast Conference Semifinal Game Previews!

On Thursday night, with all due respect to St. Francis, there weren’t any upsets in the first round of the Northeast Conference tournament.  In fact, it’s now clear that the 4 best teams in the conference are left in the semifinals, which should make for some terrific competitive basketball.  Below, I offer game previews for each of the semifinal match-ups.  I wish I wasn’t stuck here in Maryland for the weekend, but I will be present at the NEC finals on Wednesday night, which I absolutely can’t wait for!

NEC Semifinals - #5 seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats (18-12, 11-8 NEC) at #1 seeded Long Island Blackbirds (23-8, 17-2 NEC)

Background:  LIU swept the season series, despite getting badly out-rebounded in both contests, 98-62.  In their first meeting, Quinnipiac grabbed a staggering 60 rebounds, which was their season high.  Nevertheless, the Blackbirds overcame the wide rebounding margin with more efficient shooting and by sinking an average of 6 more free throws per game than the Bobcats.  As is usually the case against NEC competition, Jamal Olasewere and Julian Boyd averaged a combined 36 points and 18 rebounds in both contests. 

Keys to the Game:

1) Control the Pace of the Game

For LIU, the pace of the game doesn’t matter much.  Their offense will succeed either way, as they possess players like Jason Brickman, Olasewere, and Boyd that can either push the tempo or run an efficient half-court set.  In Quinnipiac’s case however, playing a game at a faster tempo doesn’t usually translate into success.  When Quinnipiac averages less than 68 possessions per game, they are 10-1 this season and 7-1 versus the NEC.  These numbers certainly make sense, since Quinnipiac’s big forwards prefer a more physical brand of basketball in the half court set.

2) Defend the Perimeter

This was a key of the game from LIU’s first round match-up against Sacred Heart, and for good reason.  With their first round victory, LIU now has a 17-1 record when shooting better than 36% from behind the three-point line.  James Johnson, Dave Johnson, and Zaid Hearst need to focus their attention on guarding Michael Culpo and Brickman, or they’ll be victimized by the three-point shot much like they were in the previous two meetings.  On the flip side, it would be prudent for Jim Ferry to find a way to stop Quinnipiac’s team leader and leading scorer James Johnson.  A quick start from Johnson could go a long way to helping the Bobcats believe they can pull off the upset.  So, how big of a key is Johnson’s performance this Sunday?  Well in 8 conference losses this season, Johnson is averaging 12.5 points (4.1 ppg under his season average) on an unproductive 39 for 121 (32%) shooting.

3) Get to the Free Throw Line

Quinnipiac needs to match LIU’s production at the free throw line.  They can do so by simply being more aggressive, slashing to the hole and doing their best not to settle for contested jump shots.  A more aggressive style could put LIU’s big men in foul trouble as well, which would obviously benefit the Bobcats.  If you’re the Blackbirds, getting to the line 25 times should be the goal.

Prediction:  Quinnipiac will come ready to play in Brooklyn, however LIU has been on this stage before, and I believe their previous experiences will guide them to a close victory and a return trip to the NEC finals.  Jim Ferry sweats this one out, but in the end, LIU’s success at the free throw line late gets them the win.  Long Island 82, Quinnipiac 78.

NEC Semifinals - #3 Robert Morris Colonials (23-9, 14-5 NEC) at #2 Wagner Seahawks (25-5, 16-3 NEC)

Background:  In their lone meeting this past February, the hosting Seahawks used a quick start in the first half to coast to a 80-69 victory over the Colonials.  In the game, Wagner made an incredible 34 free throws on only 40 attempts and held Robert Morris to 43% shooting and 0.93 points per possession.

Keys to the Game:

1) Defend, Defend, and Defend for All 40 Minutes

This key of the game is mainly directed to Andy Toole’s team, since the Colonials sometimes fell into the ugly habit of suffering from defensive lapses in certain games.  In their last meeting with Wagner, Robert Morris failed to defend early on, which inevitably cost them the game.  It’s a tall order, but if the Colonials can hold Wagner to less than 0.94 points per possession, then their chances of success exponentially go up.  How much so?  Robert Morris is 16-0 this season when they defend to that level.  Conversely, the magic number for Wagner’s defense should be 69 points.  When they hold opponents to that number, they have yet to lose this season (19-0).

2) Take Away the Long Range Jumper

What do you know, another key to the game is centered around defense!  This isn’t a mistake – defensive pressure and creating turnovers is what makes each of these teams tick.  Specifically, when opponents have limited Wagner’s production from behind the arc, they’ve had a fighting chance for victory.  Sure, five losses is a small sample size, but in those games, Wagner hasn’t shot better than 32% from three-point range.  With those stats, you can bet that Velton Jones, Lucky Jones and company will do their best to make life difficult for sharpshooters Tyler Murray and Latif Rivers.  For Wagner, you can expect NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz to pester Velton Jones all afternoon.

3) Get to the Free Throw Line As Much As Possible

One of the better ways to attack the Wagner defense is to make them foul you at a high rate.  One of the Seahawk’s few weaknesses this season, is avoiding the foul.  With the NEC leading free-throw producer on the other team in Velton Jones, it would certainly behoove Jones, and others, to drive to the bucket more often than not.  That way, free points at the line could help spell those offensive droughts Robert Morris has a tendency to fall into.  For Wagner, they stand in the top 3 of the NEC in free throw production, mainly because guards like Rivers and Tyler Murray, and Chris Martin are virtually automatic at the charity stripe.  Winning the free throw battle can go a long way toward playing for the championship next Wednesday night.

Prediction:  This game could go either way, but I’m sticking to my prediction at the beginning of the season of Wagner making the NEC finals  In an ugly, defensive-minded battle at the Spiro Center, I believe the Seahwak's pressure defense and home crowd will be the difference.  Just please be prepared for the media coverage of the Hurley brothers leading up to the NEC Championship game.  The coverage may get nauseating for you Wagner haters.  Wagner 64, Robert Morris 61.

It should be a fantastic duo of games.  Enjoy NEC Semifinal Sunday!

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Quinnipiac vs. BU Recap - I Do It For the Love of the Game

On the afternoon of New Years Eve, a much anticipated college basketball game was taking place in the state of Connecticut.  The St. John's Red Storm were entering a sold out XL Center to take on the #9 ranked UConn Huskies.  It was a Big East battle that shouldn't be missed.

Meanwhile, some 30 miles south down Interstate 91, I purchased a $5 ticket to enter the TD Banknorth Sports Center on the campus of Quinnipiac University.  There, I would be satisfying my Northeast Conference fix to watch a fairly insignificant non-conference matchup between the Boston University (BU) Terriers and the Quinnipiac Bobcats.  And I couldn’t be happier.  Here I could finally catch up on some live mid-major college basketball and study Quinnipiac’s ferocious rebounding attack, which was second in the nation in both total rebounds per game (44.8) and rebounding margin (12.3).  I wanted to get a glimpse of 6-foot-7 super sophomore Ike Izotam, who despite his smallish stature for a power forward, impressively led the NEC with 11.2 rebounds per game.

Both teams were heading in opposite directions leading up to the contest.  Quinnipiac, after falling to my Sacred Heart Pioneers on December 1st, had won 5 of their last 6.  On the other hand, BU were losers of 5 straight, albeit against some very respectable competition in Harvard, La Salle, Villanova, and St. Joseph’s.  Nevertheless, I was expecting a one-sided affair.

The story certainly didn’t play out that way early on. Anchored by seniors Darryl Partin (2nd in America East scoring with 20.2 points per game) and Matt Griffin, BU came out firing to open up an early lead.  Quinnipiac tried to answer, but as been the case most of the season, there appeared to be a lid on the Bobcat’s basket.  Quinnipiac struggled mightily in the half court set, shooting 31% from the field.  What was most surprising though was Quinnipiac’s failure to dominate the glass, which was amplified when 6’9’’ freshman Ousmane Drame picked up his second foul with 10 minutes remaining in the first half.  With Drame’s departure and Izotam’s ineffectiveness, the energized Terriers slowly drained the life out the TD Banknorth crowd.  When the sharp-shooting Griffin drew an offensive foul and then quickly drained a 3 pointer late in the first half, the shocked crowd saw their Bobcats trail at the half, 32-19.

I’m not sure what Quinnipiac coach Tom Moore said to his team at halftime, but whatever was shouted, it worked.  Within the first 4 minutes of the second half, Quinnipiac cut their double digit deficit to 4 by hitting three straight from beyond the arch.  Suddenly, the crowd woke up.  The Bobcats began their patented “crash the glass” attack.  Drame did his best Emeka Okafor impersonation by taking control of the paint and rejecting or altering every BU shot attempt within his vicinity.  James Johnson, who scored 16 points while playing all 40 minutes, made life very difficult for Partin in the 2nd half.  Now it was BU's turn to struggle offensively, no matter how hard first-year BU coach Joe Jones emphatically tried to rally the troops.  The Quinnipiac rebounding and defensive tenacity was back.  And Tom Moore was impressed.

“I was really proud of our guys resolve in the second half, and our ability to shake off a really bad offensive night from pretty much our team and every player and commit totally to defending and to going to the offensive boards in the second half.  BU has played an incredibly challenging schedule, but I don’t think there were many halves were they’ve shot 26% from the floor.”

Once Quinnipiac’s brand of hard-nosed basketball took shape, it was only a matter of time before they finished off the Terriers.  Everyone in the arena knew it.  And finally, a Nate Graus three from the corner and two free throws from Johnson gave Quinnipiac their first lead of the game, 43-42, with 5:59 remaining.  It was a lead they would not relinquish, despite the overall ugly offensive performance (effective field goal percentage of 37%, 0.88 points per possession).  In the end, through the offensive muck, it was Tom Moore praising his team for the hard-fought victory.

“I thought our will on the offensive glass in particular, Ousmane Drame, Zaid Hearst, Garvey Young even, at keeping balls alive and continuing to go when nothing was really happening for us offensively was really good for our team’s confidence going forward.”

It was a Northeast Conference/America East matchup that could never have matched the talent level of the Big East battle in Hartford.  But you know what?  I’ll watch the BU/Quinnipiac game over St. John’s/UConn game any day of the week.

After all - I do it, for the love of the (mid-major) game.