NEC Play Offers Sacred Heart a Fresh Start

January 3, 2013 offers a clean slate for the 12 Northeast Conference (NEC) teams, because at the low mid-major level winning the NEC title is practically the only avenue these teams have toward qualifying for the NCAA tournament. For the 2-9 Sacred Heart Pioneers, the fresh start offers a much needed reprieve from the evident struggles of the non-conference season. Sacred Heart assistant coach Anthony Latina clearly agrees.

"Obviously, our record is not where we want it to be," said Latina. "But I think [the players] understand it's about league play. I think for the most part, the guys have worked very hard and are positive and are trying to turn this thing around."

Latina then added, "The last time we played this poorly [in non-conference] was Drew Shubik's senior year (2007-08 season). We had an identical non-conference record, and we ended up going 13-5 [in the NEC]. We were one game out of first and ended up getting to the NEC title game. The point is after we were 2-9 [in the 2007-08 season], we were a possession away from going to the NCAA tournament and three years ago we were 7-4 [in non-conference] and didn't make the [NEC] playoffs. We've been on both ends of it. Obviously, you don't want to finish 2-9, but doing well or not well in non-conference really has had no bearing on predicting how we'd do in conference play."

The first conference game of the season offers SHU an opportunity with a shorthanded LIU Brooklyn club traveling to Fairfield. The Blackbirds will be without the services of starters Julian Boyd (injury/suspension), Jamal Olasewere (suspension), and C.J. Garner (suspension). It will make things very difficult for the defending NEC champions out of the gate, but SHU needs to take full advantage.

"You never want to say it's a must win with 18 games left to go, but I would say it's an important game," said Latina. "I would say it's an important game, especially because we haven't played well. So from a confidence standpoint, from a momentum standpoint I would say it's very important to get out of the gate and play well."

Latina did warn that an element of surprise could play a role in the outcome of tonight's game however. "Obviously if you ask LIU, they would rather have Olasewere and Garner playing, but from a preparation standpoint you are going to be seeing some guys who haven't been playing as much. You don't really know what they can do and can't do."

SHU will also be a little shorthanded in the frontcourt. Senior power forward Femi Akinpetide is unlikely to play as he's dealing with a personal issue. Tevin Falzon, although he's fully eligible and will dress with the team tonight, hasn't played recently because the team has disciplined him due to recent academic issues. Whether or not he sees some time in tonight's game will be a game-time decision.

Despite the injuries to Evan Kelley and Chris Evans and the thinned out frontcourt depth, the Pioneers are desperate to prove to their fans and the league that they are a better team then their 2-9 record indicates.

"I think you'll see a team that will play much better; I'm confident in that," said Latina the night before their first conference game. "And before the La Salle and GW games which were debacles, I thought we were certainly heading in the right direction. We lost to a very good Stony Brook team who I thought we outplayed for most of the game."

Added Latina, "I do think we have enough - even with the injuries [to Evans and Kelley] - to be a factor. We have enough weapons to be a factor. Now are we the most talented team? No, losing those two guys you can't expect to be."

It will certainly be interesting to see how the Pioneers respond. These days, the goals have been shortened to a day-by-day basis, because as Latina explains, you're only as good as your next practice or next game.

"I think the way you have to approach it, when your team has won a league championship like a LIU or Robert Morris, I think winning a league championship should be discussed. I think when you are a team like us, you have to think more on a short-term basis. We have to play better tomorrow. We have to focus on being better tomorrow."

Today will be an excellent test for the struggling Pioneers. Can they take advantage of a shorthanded LIU club, or will this brutal season continue to spiral out of the control?

Ryan Peters covers Sacred Heart men's basketball for Pioneer Pride and Big Apple Buckets. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

The 2011-2012 Northeast Conference End of Season Recap - Part 2

For Part 1 of the NEC Season Recap, go here.

6.  Monmouth Hawks, 12-20 (10-8 NEC) 

For more than half of the season, the Monmouth Hawks looked like the same old mediocre team, as they stumbled out to a 3-16 and 1-5 conference record.  At that point however, first year head coach King Rice's effect on the roster began to take hold, as the Hawks finished the season improbably winning 9 of their final 13 contests.  The late season surge was thanks to playing inspired defense and using a well balanced scoring attack, led by diminutive junior guard Jesse Steele.  Now, the future looks brighter for the Rice's kids, especially with the impressive recruiting haul coming in for the 2012-13 season.  With that said, I would be cautious to project an improvement from 10 conference victories, but make no mistake, NEC teams can no longer expect an easy victory when they play the Monmouth Hawks.

5.  Quinnipiac Bobcats, 18-14 (10-8 NEC)

It was another season of controlling the boards for Quinnipiac, as they finished 2nd in the nation in rebounding percentage.  Ousmane Drame showed glimpses of how dominating he and front-court mate Ike Azotam could be when each is playing at a high level.  When the defensive intensity was there for Tom Moore’s squad, the Bobcats could certainly get by most nights with a victory.  But when they squared off against the offensively powered NEC elite, specifically Wagner and LIU, the Bobcats simply couldn’t match their opponent's offensive output.  Losing All-NEC 2nd Teamer James Johnson won’t help, so the big question heading into next season is how much will the rest of the team, mainly Zaid Hearst, Nate Gause, and Jamee Jackson pick up the scoring slack?  Quinnipiac has been close the last couple of years, but offensive efficiency still impedes their ability to secure their first ever NCAA tournament bid.

4.  St. Francis (NY) Terriers 16-15 (12-6 NEC)

If you take out the first 5 games and the last 3 games of the Terrier’s season, it was a fantastic run for the team that called Pope Education Center home.  Unfortunately, the entire season counts and injuries depleted Glenn Braica’s roster just enough to be ousted in the first round of the NEC tourney by Quinnipiac.  Even with the early round exit, Braica rightfully earned NEC Coach of the Year honors, as he did a masterful job squeezing 12 conference wins out of a no-name roster that lost starting guard Dre Calloway to a shoulder injury.  Looking ahead, the nucleus of Ben Mockford, Travis Nichols, Brent Jones and Jalen Cannon should give NEC teams a battle every single night.  Given how competitive the conference has become however, projecting St. Francis to match their 12 conference wins next season may be a tad bullish.

3.  Robert Morris Colonials, 26-11 (13-5 NEC)
With much of the hype on Wagner and Long Island throughout the season, all the Colonials did was quietly compile a 13-5 conference record en route to a #3 seed in the NEC tourney.  From there, Velton Jones and company essentially ended Dan Hurley's career at Wagner with a grinding, defensively inspired semifinal victory.  In the end, Andy Toole's team fell just short in the finals, but it was another impressive effort nonetheless.  Robert Morris has now averaged more than 14 NEC victories in each of the past 5 seasons, and with a roster that only graduates Lawrence Bridges, the Colonials will once again be part of the NEC elite moving forward.

2.  Wagner Seahawks, 25-6 (15-3 NEC)

The media darlings of the Northeast Conference did everything this season except win the NEC regular season and postseason championship, and it dearly cost them.  25 wins, 12 of which were on the road, and a non-conference record of 9-2, just wasn’t enough to warrant a NIT invite.  Perhaps as a result (although I’m guessing $4 million dollars played a slightly larger role), the Hurley brothers left to coach the University of Rhode Island.  Hurley’s departure however, didn’t scare off the top notch recruits coming to Wagner next season, as both Eric Fanning and Dwuan Anderson have allegedly remain committed to Seahawk basketball.  Pair them with NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz, All-NEC 2nd Teamer Latif Rivers and young big men Mario Moody and Naofall Folahan and you have a scary good lineup.  The transaction next season won’t be seamless, especially with the departure of the underrated Tyler Murray, but Wagner should again compete for the NEC title, as long as the youngest coach in college basketball Bashir Mason can pick up where Dan Hurley left off.

1.  Long Island University Blackbirds, 25-9 (16-2 NEC)

It was another remarkable season for Jim Ferry’s Blackbirds, as LIU dominated their NEC opponents by averaging 1.10 points per offensive possession.  As great as NEC Player of the Year Julian Boyd and All-NEC 1st Teamer Jamal Olasewere were in the front-court, it was super sophomore Jason Brickman that catalyzed the mastery of LIU’s offense.  Brickman was fifth in the nation with 7.3 assists per game and he -- along with back-court mate Michael Culpo -- shot 38.4% from behind the arc.  Throw in slasher C.J. Garner, and you have an offensive juggernaut that ultimately pushed LIU to their second straight NCAA tournament.  There’s little chance of regression since the Blackbirds only lose Culpo to graduation with the core of Boyd, Olasewere, and Brickman still in tact.  Sure, the Blackbird’s 26 game home winning streak will probably be snapped at some point next season, but the back-to-back NEC champions still have one last run in them before the roster is turned over.

You can follow Pioneer Pride for Sacred Heart and Northeast Conference men's basketball updates on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Michigan State Overwhelms Long Island University with Interior Play

The Big Ten Champions were just too big, too strong, too skilled, and practically impossible for the Blackbirds to defend in the paint.  Tom Izzo’s Michigan State (MSU) Spartans took full advantage of it.

Despite a hard fought effort, the undersized Long Island University (LIU) Blackbirds simply couldn’t overcome a monster effort from MSU’s interior trio of Adrelan Payne, Derrick Nix, and, of course, Big Ten Player of the Year and potential National Player of the Year, Draymond Green.  All three big men scored a combined 58 points on 26-for-41 shooting to go along with 27 rebounds and 12 assists.  Green led the charge with a triple double (24/12/10), which was the third of his career.

The gross interior mismatch resulted in an 89-67 defeat for LIU, which knocks them out of the NCAA tournament in the round of 64 game for the second straight year.

“I thought we did a good job using speed and quickness to negate their size in the first half.  We were a little overwhelmed in the 2nd,” said LIU head coach Jim Ferry in the post-game press conference.

After 20 minutes of play, LIU found themselves only down 5 points, 42-37.  LIU was staying competitive by out-producing MSU from behind the arc (5 made 3s versus 0 for MSU) and at the foul line (8 FTs versus 4).  CJ Garner led the charge with 8 points on only 4 shots, as his team was making an concerted effort to be aggressive on the offensive end.

For the second half however, Tom Izzo showed why he’s one of the best NCAA tournament coaches in the business.  The Spartans hardly went a possession without passing the ball into the interior, forcing the undersized forwards of LIU to defend players like Green, Payne, and the massive Nix.  The halftime adjustment quickly paid off, as MSU scored 10 points on their first 6 possessions of the second half, building a commanding double-digit lead.

MSU outscored LIU in the paint, 62-26.  They out-rebounded the Blackbirds, 42-19.  And that was obviously the difference, no matter how well the Blackbirds shot from the outside or how aggressive they were on offense.

Jamal Olasewere led LIU in the game with 17 points. Julian Boyd and C.J. Garner each had 15 points, while Michael Culpo ends his career on a soar note, scoring only 3 points on a 1 for 7 shooting performance.

After the game, you can’t help but wonder how much LIU’s 0-3 start to the season affected their chance at a #15 seed.  Given the vulnerably of the #2 seeds this season with Duke and Missouri losing, one could certainly make the argument that LIU had a chance to pull off an upset if they were put in the same position as Lehigh and Norfolk State. 

In spite of their second round of 64 loss in as many years and the early season disappointment though, the LIU Blackbirds had another excellent season under Ferry.  Michael Culpo is the only major contributor leaving due to graduation, so once again, LIU will enter next season as the undisputed NEC favorite.

Together with Wagner, Quinnipiac, Robert Morris, and St. Francis, LIU will help lead the NEC into perhaps their most successful season for the 2012-2013 campaign.  It's an exciting prospect for the future of the conference and hopefully, the NEC will finally be able to pull off a NCAA Tournament upset.  It will happen one of these years.

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Can #16 seeded Long Island University Knock Off #1 Seeded Michigan State?

As you know by now, the Long Island University (LIU) Blackbirds won their second consecutive Northeast Conference (NEC) title and qualified once again for the NCAA tournament by defeating Robert Morris in Brooklyn last Wednesday night.  Their reward for ripping through the NEC with a superb 19-2 record, however, leads to a first round showdown with Tom Izzo’s Michigan State (MSU) Spartans, winners of the Big Ten regular season and tournament championship.  Not only will the #16 seeded LIU Blackbirds battle MSU this Friday night, but they’ll also face off against history, and some pretty serious history at that.

To date, a #16 seeded team has failed to record one victory in 108 tries when challenging a #1 seeded team in the NCAA tournament.  LIU, despite four previous Big Dance appearances, has never won a NCAA game, with their closest moment resulting in a three-point loss to Jim Calhoun’s Northeastern team in 1984 (yes, THAT Jim Calhoun).  LIU has never defeated a team in the RPI top 50 (I know, Ken Pomeroy hates RPI, but just follow along until I sign up for KenPom before next season).  From the other side, MSU is 10-4 in the first round of the NCAA tournament under Tom Izzo and 8-0 when seeded fifth or higher.  Michigan State has never lost to a NEC school, nor has LIU ever beaten a Big Ten team in its history.

There are some serious historic hurdles to clear for Jim Ferry’s Blackbirds, aren’t there?

Well, I’m here to tell you LIU has a chance.  Sure, it’s a slim chance, but if LIU plays their best and gets a few lucky bounces and calls, I do honestly believe they have a shot to make history.  Just please don’t expect me to have the balls to write LIU into the second round of my office tournament bracket.

In the past two seasons, LIU has lost both of their games to Big Ten schools.  Neither team, Penn State nor Northwestern, came close to the quality of MSU, and with the absence of a ranked power conference opponent in their schedule this season, it’s difficult to forecast how the Blackbirds will respond to a national juggernaut on the big stage of the NCAA tournament.  The only real comparison is LIU's NCAA opponent from a year ago, North Carolina, but the Tar Heels don't resemble your typical Big Ten team. 

I can, however, tell you what the Blackbirds must do in order to have a chance to play in the second round on Sunday.  These four things listed below are essential for LIU to execute in order to have a fighting chance.

1) Play Up-tempo LIU Basketball

Within the vacuum of mid-major basketball, LIU can score at an efficient level in the half-court set or when pushing the pace.  With the defensive minded Spartans however, the Blackbirds must do their best to set the tempo to a 75-possession game.  Izzo’s Spartans thrive in the half-court set and lead the Big Ten in points allowed per possession at 0.91, therefore it would benefit Jason Brickman and company to run like they’ve never run before to help stay away from the Big Ten brand of physical basketball.  More possessions won’t necessarily increase LIU’s chances for an upset, but efficient possessions coupled with a low turnover ratio certainly will.

2) Shoot Lights Out Behind the Arc

Three-point shooting almost always shows up as a key to the game when I’m writing a game preview involving LIU.  This is because when LIU hits their long-range buckets, they’re almost impossible to beat…well at least at the NEC level.  This David and Goliath match-up shouldn’t be an exception to the rule, since most Cinderella schools need the three-point shot to help pull off the monster upset.  It wasn’t a coincidence that Richmond, VCU, and Morehead State each shot better than 47% from behind the arc in their respective first round upset victories last year.  Thus, Blackbird fans better hope Michael Culpo, CJ Garner, and Brickman are feeling it on Friday night.

3) Be Aggressive by Getting to the Free Throw Line

A major strength of LIU, as depicted nicely by John Templon, is their production at the free throw line.  Currently, the Blackbirds are ranked second in the nation (yes, second) in free throw production, so fouling has to be a concern for Tom Izzo.  The Spartans are only 2-4 on the year when they foul their opponent more than 20 times.  Sure, those 4 losses are to Wisconsin, Duke, Northwestern, and North Carolina, but one of those two wins could serve as an excellent blueprint for LIU.  Patriot Leaguer Lehigh lost a close December showdown with MSU, as they were competitively in the game for the first 30 minutes, in spite of playing at the unfriendly confines of East Lansing.  In the game, Lehigh forced 22 MSU personal fouls, which led to 30 free throw attempts and a rather respectable nine point defeat.

4) Elicit the Tom Izzo Face As Much As Possible

This statistic hasn't been confirmed by Basketball Prospectus, but I'm pretty sure MSU loses most of the time when the Tom Izzo face comes out at least 10 times in the second half of a game (for proof, watch MSU's loss at Illinois).  You know, it's the face Coach Izzo makes when a player commits a bonehead foul, shoots a contested jumper early in the shot clock, or fails to properly defend a high pick-and-roll.  If you didn't know any better, you'd think Izzo found out his student athlete was just arrested for dealing drugs.  If LIU can elicit the Izzo face throughout most of the game, then LIU has a shot.  I'm setting the Izzo Face magic number to 13.5 for the game.  Anything under that, and it's probably curtains for the Blackbirds.

Seem easy enough, right?  If LIU can execute their game plan, they could surprise with a competitive game in the first round.  Only five #16 seeded teams have ever lost to a #1 seed by five points or less, but it’s a fairly reasonable possibility that Jim Ferry’s club can keep the game close.  After all, the NEC (aka, LIU and Robert Morris) has competed admirably in the most recent NCAA tournaments, so it isn't a stretch to think that Draymond Green, Keith Appling and company may sweat it out in the second half of Friday's contest.

All I know, is it will be a fun game to watch on TBS this Friday night.  Especially with my wife, who is a Spartan alum and a big Tom Izzo fan.

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Long Island University dominates Robert Morris to Earn Back-to-Back NEC Championships

Long Island University star forward Jamal Olasewere entered the press conference room, with an understandably wide grin, telling the members of the media to ask his point guard Jason Brickman a question. “You need to make him talk,” Olasewere joked.

The shy point guard may be a reserved person off the court (a la Ryan Peters circa 1994), but on the court, Brickman’s assertive, fantastic play was a major reason why his teammates were sitting at the press conference table tonight with the Northeast Conference trophy by their side.

Olasewere certainly agreed.  “He’s the captain behind this ship.  He’s a coach on the floor.  And he controls the game, night in and night out.  He does his thing on the court, and without him we couldn’t have done this. He’s a great point guard.”

NEC Player of the Year and NEC Tournament MVP Julian Boyd was even more complimentary.  “I definitely wouldn’t have gotten Player of the Year without him (Brickman).  The way he distributes the ball on the court and still scores, it’s amazing.”  At the end, Boyd jokingly added, “I love the guy, but just for now.”

There’s certainly plenty to love if you’re a Blackbird’s player or fan.  Brickman’s 11 assists last night were a NEC finals record and his 29 assists were a NEC Tournament record.  The sophomore All-NEC Second Team selection was consistently driving by the Joneses of Robert Morris, Lucky and Velton, to create plays both on the fast break and in the half-court set.

In the first minute of the game, All-NEC First Team Selection Velton Jones hit the deck hard, after scoring the first points of the game on a contested layup defended by Boyd.  Jones stayed on the floor for 5 minutes before getting up gingerly under his own power.  It was a sign of the rough night ahead for Robert Morris.

Early on however, the Colonials got off to a fast start, thanks mainly to Coron Williams and Mike McFaddan, but a Blackbirds 13-0 and 20-5 run midway through the first half, led by Brickman’s playmaking of course, gave them a lead they would never relinquish.

In the second half, despite some attempts by Robert Morris to chip away at the deficit, LIU kept making big time plays to keep the lead at double digits.  One play in particular, nearly brought down the Wellness Recreation Athletic Center.

On another fast break, CJ Garner decided it was a good idea to hoist a more than half-court pass near the rim toward a driving Julian Boyd.  The perfectly placed pass was received by Boyd in mid-air, who then emphatically slammed it home, sending the sellout crowd into a frenzy.  Immediately after the dunk, Boyd pointed toward the front row, directing his attention to the most famous celebrity at this game, Spike Lee.

It was a fitting way to end a spectular night, and season, for Boyd.  The NEC Regular Season and Tournament MVP finished the game with his patented double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds.  

So how did this dominant performance by LIU happen?  Robert Morris head coach Andy Toole explains. “We tried to play LIU basketball better than LIU.  We have to play the game in the 60s, that’s where we live.  We didn’t do a very good job in the start of the game, the game was played in their speed and style, and we weren’t very successful.”

The tempo, coupled with other factors, certainly led to the Colonial demise.  They were as follows:

1) The aforementioned inability of Robert Morris to contain Jason Brickman.  Brickman set the tempo early, with 6 points and 7 assists in the first half, despite having a defensive stud in Velton Jones guarding him much of the time. Brickman impressively finished with 18 points (8 for 8 at the free throw line), 11 assists, and 3 rebounds.

2) The inability of Robert Morris to hit open outside shots.  The Colonials had plenty of opportunities to get back into the game with the trifecta, but it wasn’t meant to be.  Robert Morris missed 21 of their 26 three-point attempts, led by a 0 for 6 three-point shooting performance by Jones.

3) LIU outscored Robert Morris at the free throw line, 31-14.  In the end, a bloated Robert Morris foul total was exasperated by an ill-fated comeback attempt, but make no mistake, 32 personal fouls against the NEC leader in free throw production, usually won’t lead to success.  The 32 fouls was a season high for Robert Morris.

In the end, the LIU students for a second straight year rushed the court, in celebration of another NEC Tournament Championship and a repeat appearance in the NCAA Tournament.  With any luck, the Blackbirds might be placed on the 15-line (c’mon tournament committee, have some love for the Blackbirds!), and draw a #2 seeded opponent like Michigan State, Duke or Missouri in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

For Robert Morris, an NIT bid is possible, but most likely not probable.  Instead, they may have to post $30K to play in the CIT or CBI, which should give Andy Toole’s players valuable experience heading into the 2012-2013 season.

And finally for this blogger, it was one remarkable experience for me, since I got to pretend that I was an important member of the media for a night.  Sure, my laptop was almost trampled when a LIU student jumped the press pass table to rush the court, but otherwise it was a night I would never forgot.  Hopefully, there are many more in my future.

The In-Depth Northeast Conference Semifinal Game Previews!

On Thursday night, with all due respect to St. Francis, there weren’t any upsets in the first round of the Northeast Conference tournament.  In fact, it’s now clear that the 4 best teams in the conference are left in the semifinals, which should make for some terrific competitive basketball.  Below, I offer game previews for each of the semifinal match-ups.  I wish I wasn’t stuck here in Maryland for the weekend, but I will be present at the NEC finals on Wednesday night, which I absolutely can’t wait for!

NEC Semifinals - #5 seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats (18-12, 11-8 NEC) at #1 seeded Long Island Blackbirds (23-8, 17-2 NEC)

Background:  LIU swept the season series, despite getting badly out-rebounded in both contests, 98-62.  In their first meeting, Quinnipiac grabbed a staggering 60 rebounds, which was their season high.  Nevertheless, the Blackbirds overcame the wide rebounding margin with more efficient shooting and by sinking an average of 6 more free throws per game than the Bobcats.  As is usually the case against NEC competition, Jamal Olasewere and Julian Boyd averaged a combined 36 points and 18 rebounds in both contests. 

Keys to the Game:

1) Control the Pace of the Game

For LIU, the pace of the game doesn’t matter much.  Their offense will succeed either way, as they possess players like Jason Brickman, Olasewere, and Boyd that can either push the tempo or run an efficient half-court set.  In Quinnipiac’s case however, playing a game at a faster tempo doesn’t usually translate into success.  When Quinnipiac averages less than 68 possessions per game, they are 10-1 this season and 7-1 versus the NEC.  These numbers certainly make sense, since Quinnipiac’s big forwards prefer a more physical brand of basketball in the half court set.

2) Defend the Perimeter

This was a key of the game from LIU’s first round match-up against Sacred Heart, and for good reason.  With their first round victory, LIU now has a 17-1 record when shooting better than 36% from behind the three-point line.  James Johnson, Dave Johnson, and Zaid Hearst need to focus their attention on guarding Michael Culpo and Brickman, or they’ll be victimized by the three-point shot much like they were in the previous two meetings.  On the flip side, it would be prudent for Jim Ferry to find a way to stop Quinnipiac’s team leader and leading scorer James Johnson.  A quick start from Johnson could go a long way to helping the Bobcats believe they can pull off the upset.  So, how big of a key is Johnson’s performance this Sunday?  Well in 8 conference losses this season, Johnson is averaging 12.5 points (4.1 ppg under his season average) on an unproductive 39 for 121 (32%) shooting.

3) Get to the Free Throw Line

Quinnipiac needs to match LIU’s production at the free throw line.  They can do so by simply being more aggressive, slashing to the hole and doing their best not to settle for contested jump shots.  A more aggressive style could put LIU’s big men in foul trouble as well, which would obviously benefit the Bobcats.  If you’re the Blackbirds, getting to the line 25 times should be the goal.

Prediction:  Quinnipiac will come ready to play in Brooklyn, however LIU has been on this stage before, and I believe their previous experiences will guide them to a close victory and a return trip to the NEC finals.  Jim Ferry sweats this one out, but in the end, LIU’s success at the free throw line late gets them the win.  Long Island 82, Quinnipiac 78.

NEC Semifinals - #3 Robert Morris Colonials (23-9, 14-5 NEC) at #2 Wagner Seahawks (25-5, 16-3 NEC)

Background:  In their lone meeting this past February, the hosting Seahawks used a quick start in the first half to coast to a 80-69 victory over the Colonials.  In the game, Wagner made an incredible 34 free throws on only 40 attempts and held Robert Morris to 43% shooting and 0.93 points per possession.

Keys to the Game:

1) Defend, Defend, and Defend for All 40 Minutes

This key of the game is mainly directed to Andy Toole’s team, since the Colonials sometimes fell into the ugly habit of suffering from defensive lapses in certain games.  In their last meeting with Wagner, Robert Morris failed to defend early on, which inevitably cost them the game.  It’s a tall order, but if the Colonials can hold Wagner to less than 0.94 points per possession, then their chances of success exponentially go up.  How much so?  Robert Morris is 16-0 this season when they defend to that level.  Conversely, the magic number for Wagner’s defense should be 69 points.  When they hold opponents to that number, they have yet to lose this season (19-0).

2) Take Away the Long Range Jumper

What do you know, another key to the game is centered around defense!  This isn’t a mistake – defensive pressure and creating turnovers is what makes each of these teams tick.  Specifically, when opponents have limited Wagner’s production from behind the arc, they’ve had a fighting chance for victory.  Sure, five losses is a small sample size, but in those games, Wagner hasn’t shot better than 32% from three-point range.  With those stats, you can bet that Velton Jones, Lucky Jones and company will do their best to make life difficult for sharpshooters Tyler Murray and Latif Rivers.  For Wagner, you can expect NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz to pester Velton Jones all afternoon.

3) Get to the Free Throw Line As Much As Possible

One of the better ways to attack the Wagner defense is to make them foul you at a high rate.  One of the Seahawk’s few weaknesses this season, is avoiding the foul.  With the NEC leading free-throw producer on the other team in Velton Jones, it would certainly behoove Jones, and others, to drive to the bucket more often than not.  That way, free points at the line could help spell those offensive droughts Robert Morris has a tendency to fall into.  For Wagner, they stand in the top 3 of the NEC in free throw production, mainly because guards like Rivers and Tyler Murray, and Chris Martin are virtually automatic at the charity stripe.  Winning the free throw battle can go a long way toward playing for the championship next Wednesday night.

Prediction:  This game could go either way, but I’m sticking to my prediction at the beginning of the season of Wagner making the NEC finals  In an ugly, defensive-minded battle at the Spiro Center, I believe the Seahwak's pressure defense and home crowd will be the difference.  Just please be prepared for the media coverage of the Hurley brothers leading up to the NEC Championship game.  The coverage may get nauseating for you Wagner haters.  Wagner 64, Robert Morris 61.

It should be a fantastic duo of games.  Enjoy NEC Semifinal Sunday!

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Sacred Heart Ends Season As Expected, Just Short Against the NEC Elite

For the Sacred Heart Pioneers, Thursday night was a microcosm of the season.  This year, Sacred Heart (14-18, 8-11 NEC) always found a way to fall just short, when facing the elite teams of the Northeast Conference.  On Thursday, the elite team was the Blackbirds of Long Island (23-8, 17-2 NEC), who came into the game with a 24 consecutive home wins, a 4 game win streak over the Pioneers, and a 32-4 NEC record the past two seasons.  Sounds like a daunting, if not near impossible task for Dave Bike’s Pioneers to overcome, right?

It was. In a game such as this, Sacred Heart needed to play near perfect basketball by limiting their turnovers, scoring through a balanced attack, and defending on the perimeter.  The Pioneers did none of the above.

Despite trailing for most of the game and by 15 late in the first half, Sacred Heart to their credit cut LIU’s deficit to one point, on a Nick Greenbacker tip-in with 14 minutes remaining in the second half.  Up until that point however, the Pioneers were dodging bullet after bullet, in the form of LIU missing wide open looks from three-point land.

But after a while, those shots started falling for LIU, as the sharp shooting Michael Culpo and Jason Brickman each drained 3 long-range jumpers for the game.  And once those shots went in and the Boyd/Olasewere duo continued to dominate the paint, a vicious domino effect was in place that the less talented Pioneers couldn’t overcome.

All in all, it wasn’t a terrible Pioneer performance.  They out-rebounded LIU, 34-24.  LIU only made 2 more free throws than Sacred Heart, even though LIU is one of the nation leaders in free throw attempts per game.  Sacred Heart shot a respectable 48% from the floor and 38% from three.

But like I said before, Sacred Heart had to play a flawless game to advance into the semifinals of the NEC tourney.  And they didn’t.  The Pioneers had a rather high turnover percentage of 24.2%.  Their poor perimeter defense, when employing a 1-3-1 and 2-3 zone defense, allowed the Blackbirds to make 11 three-pointers.  In actuality, LIU missed a healthy amount of open threes, so the game could have been a lot worse.  And Justin Swidowski was unable to play a majority of the game, because he found himself in deep foul trouble early in the second half.  Sacred Heart simply doesn’t have the talent to overcome those mistakes.

So, what’s ahead for the Pioneers?  Well they only lose Stan Dulaire to graduation, and he was an inconsistent performer to say the least (sorry Steve Zazuri, but you don’t count as a contributor).  Dulaire will be replaced with two fresh bodies, one being 6-foot-7 recruit Tevin Falzon, who supposedly possesses a solid inside-out game for a big man.  Also, 6-foot-8 Egyptian transfer Mostafa Abdel Latif and his awesome afro will join the team, although it remains to be seen how much he can contribute to the Pioneers on the low block.  If either guy can play reasonably well, Sacred Heart would have a very respectable set of power forwards to pair with Justin Swidowski.

In spite of the Pioneer’s expected improvement though, the NEC will only get better for next season, as most of the upper echelon teams will either stay the same or improve.  LIU graduates Michael Culpo, but their core of Boyd, Olasewere, and Brickman remains in tact.  Wagner loses All-NEC 2nd Teamer Tyler Murray and Chris Martin, but Dan Hurley landed prized recruit Dwaun Anderson, who was Mr. Basketball in the state of Michigan once upon a time.  Robert Morris and St. Francis will have most of their core in place, and Quinnipiac has a bright future ahead with Ike Azotam, Ousmane Drame, Garvey Young, and Zaid Hearst.

In other words, the Pioneers better mature real fast (I’m looking at you Chris Evans, Evan Kelley, and Justin Swidowski) or a #8 seed and a first round exit may happen again next season.  And us fans know how miserable a season like that can be, especially when the most prolific scorer in Sacred Heart history, Shane Gibson, only has one more crack at this thing before he graduates.

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Northeast Conference 1st Round Playoff Preview!

On Thursday evening, the Sacred Heart Pioneers return to the Northeast Conference postseason for the first time since losing to Mount St. Mary’s in the semifinals of the 2009 NEC tournament.  Their qualification into the postseason isn’t due to a major improvement from last year, in fact this season marks the third straight year of Sacred Heart having a losing conference record.  As a result, the Pioneers will find themselves in Brooklyn on Thursday night, taking on the defending NEC champions, the Long Island Blackbirds.  The same Long Island Blackbirds that have won 24 home games in a row at the WRAC.  Yay…

Before the playoff match-up, I decided to preview the elimination game, since Thursday may be the last time we get to witness Sacred Heart basketball before November (sorry but I don't think the NIT is calling Dave Bike).  I also briefly previewed and predicted the outcome of the other three NEC first round games.

NEC 1^st Round – #8 seeded Sacred Heart Pioneers (14-17, 8-10 NEC) at #1 seeded Long Island Blackbirds (22-8, 16-2 NEC)

Background:  The Blackbirds swept the season series, but had to earn each victory, with the latter game going to overtime after Shane Gibson hit back-to-back three-pointers late in regulation.  The NEC Player of the Year Julian Boyd and his front-court mate Jamal Olasewere have been dominant against the thin Pioneer front-court, combining for an average of 44 points and 22 rebounds per game.  The Sacred Heart duo of Shane Gibson and Justin Swidowski has been nearly as impressive in defeat, tallying an average of 49 points per game.  Swidowski has easily enjoyed his two best games of the season against LIU.

Keys to the Game:

1) Frontcourt Players Must Stay Out of Foul Trouble

Boyd, Olasewere, and Swidowski have all occasionally had issues staying on the court, due to foul trouble.  It would certainly behoove Sacred Heart to attack Boyd and Olasewere on the defensive end early, in the hope of putting either guy in foul trouble and forcing Jim Ferry to give valuable minutes to LIU back-up forward Kenny Onyechi.  Swidowski, on the other hand, has to log more than 28 minutes for the Pioneers to have a shot at pulling off the upset.  A couple of early fouls from Swidowski could place the Pioneers in a first half hole they’d have no chance to get out of, especially against a LIU team that scores an extraordinary 1.10 points per possession.

2) Get Significant Contributions from Secondary Players

Gibson, Olasewere, and Boyd should undoubtedly get their points.  How much production comes from each team’s supporting cast however, may very well swing the outcome of the game.  For Sacred Heart this season, a well-balanced scoring attack has been practically nonexistent, with no one from the Swidowski, Louis Montes, Evan Kelley, and Chris Evans group providing a consistent effort from game to game.  Someone from that group needs to produce to give Sacred Heart a fighting chance.  On the defensive end, the Pioneers need to contain the guards of LIU, specifically Michael Culpo and CJ Garner.  This season, the slashing Garner has torched the Pioneers for 38 points, to go along with 8 assists in both games. 

3) Defend the Perimeter

When Michael Culpo and Jason Brickman are hitting their three-point shots, LIU is damn near impossible to beat.  The statistics frankly don’t lie – LIU is 16-1 on the season when they shoot 36% or better from beyond the arc.  The guard heavy Pioneers also enjoy success when they’re efficient from long range, as they’re 12-6 when hitting more than 35% of their threes (and 2-11 when they don’t).  Perimeter defense should play a major role, but quite simply, the Pioneers probably need to make a bunch of long range bombs to stay competitive.

4) Protect the Basketball

Against NEC competition, the Blackbirds have done a much better job protecting the basketball.  Early in the season, they were plagued by turnovers.  Since then, Jason Brickman and company have taken care of the ball and it’s no coincidence that LIU is 15-1 when their turnover rate is less than 22% (the national average is approximately 20%).  Why do you think Monmouth was so successful in the season finale against LIU?  King Rice’s feisty bunch took the ball away from the Blackbirds 23 times in the game.  As for the Pioneers, it will be difficult to keep up with the highly efficient LIU attack if they turn over the ball more than 12 times on Thursday.

Prediction:  The loss to Monmouth in the season finale was just what the doctor ordered for Jim Ferry, as it gives his team a wake up call before they embark on their quest for a second straight NEC championship.  I think Sacred Heart hangs with LIU early, but by the middle of the second half, the Blackbirds will have a comfortable lead.  Gibson will leave Brooklyn firing, but it won’t be nearly enough.  Long Island 90, Sacred Heart 75.

NEC 1^st Round - #6 seeded Monmouth Hawks (12-19, 10-8 NEC) at #3 seeded Robert Morris Colonials (22-9, 13-5 NEC)

King Rice’s Monmouth Hawks were considered by some as the team no one wants to play in the tournament, but my guess is that Robert Morris head coach Andy Toole breathed a sign of relief when he learned his team would avoid Quinnipiac in the first round.  It was recently noted in John Templon’s NEC Tempo Free Primer that Monmouth has been a tad fortunate with their record, but I think their luck stops in Moon Township, PA.  Velton Jones and company grind out a hard fought victory in round one to give Andy Toole his 6th career NEC playoff victory in 7 tries.  Robert Morris 64, Monmouth 58.

NEC 1^st Round - #7 seeded Central Connecticut Blue Devils (13-15, 10-8 NEC) at #2 seeded Wagner Seahawks (24-5, 15-3 NEC)

Now that Ken Horton is back to playing like, well Ken Horton, the Blue Devils are a dangerous first round opponent.  Horton was held to a season low 7 points against Wagner in their first meeting, but he exploded for 22 points, 5 blocks, and 4 steals in their second contest.  The question is, how much was Wagner really trying in the meaningless season finale?  Whatever the answer, if Dan Hurley’s Seahawks play their patented pressure defensive, the offensively challenged Blue Devils will struggle mightily.  In fact, CCSU is 1-8 against NEC competition when scoring less than 1 point per possession.  My guess is NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz and company will give the Blue Devils fits.  Horton will get his points, but Vinales and Ptacek will each have bad shooting nights.  Wagner 71, Central Connecticut 62.

NEC 1^st Round - #5 seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats (17-12, 10-8 NEC) at #4 seeded St. Francis Terriers (15-14, 12-6 NEC)

These are two teams heading in different directions come tourney time.  Unfortunately for Glenn Braica’s Terriers, Stefan Perunicic and Travis Nichols are banged up and will be game-time decisions.  Even if they play, how much can they produce against a physical Quinnipiac team that has won 7 of their last 10 games?  The two things to focus on for the game is how well can St. Francis shoot it from behind the arc and will the Bobcats have their way on the boards.  My guess is that Tom Moore will have his guys focused solely on keeping rookie sensation Jalen Cannon away from the offensive glass.  Expect big games from NEC 2nd Teamers Ike Azotam and James Johnson in this down to the wire battle.  Quinnipiac 67, St. Francis 64.

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Four Excellent Candidates Fight for the Northeast Conference Coach of the Year

For the final installment of my Northeast Conference regular season awards, I delve into the Coach of the Year debate.  Like the Player and Rookie of the Year races, this vote is completely unpredictable.  In any given year, my top 4 coaches could all be the favorite to win the award, but this season has been unusual to say the least.  Below, I examine each candidate and attempt to make sense of which man deserves the 2011-2012 Northeast Conference Coach of the Year.

3b. Jim Ferry, Long Island University

The Case:  All Jim Ferry has done is lead the Blackbirds to back-to-back regular season NEC championships.  This feat was accomplished in dominant fashion, with the Blackbirds winning 16 of their 18 NEC games this season.  Under Ferry's watch, the LIU Blackbirds have become one of the most efficient offenses in the history of the NEC.

The Argument:  John Templon, in one of his latest posts, stated it perfectly when he wrote that Ferry was “a victim of expectations.”  Ferry’s squad was picked in the preseason to win it all, so their place at the top of the standings comes as no surprise.  Anything less than first place with LIU’s talent, may be categorized as an abject failure.

The Verdict:  Perhaps unfairly so, this season’s lofty expectations will prevent Ferry from earning another Jim Phelan Coach of the Year award, especially in a season where there are multiple candidates worthy of the distinction.

3a. King Rice, Monmouth University

The Case:  The rookie head coach has improbably led his Hawks to a 10-8 NEC record in his first season, despite inheriting a team that hasn't finished with a winning conference record since the 2005-2006 season.  Picked 10th in the Coaches Preseason Poll, Monmouth has greatly exceeded expectations by defeating NEC playoff teams LIU, Sacred Heart, St. Francis (NY) and CCSU, while battling Wagner and Robert Morris in closely contested battles at home.

The Argument:  I’m really digging here, but Monmouth has been a tad fortunate in several of their wins.  After stunning Sacred Heart in a terrific come-from-behind victory, King Rice admitted his team got a little lucky.  And Monmouth’s last two regular season victories came when one team was banged up considerably (St. Francis, NY) and another was just playing out the regular season after locking up a #1 seed (LIU).

The Verdict:  Rice has done a phenomenal job in his first season and has the Hawks moving in the right direction.  But given the seasonal accomplishments of the two coaches I’m about to discuss, I feel Rice falls just short of serious consideration for the Coach of the Year honors.

2. Dan Hurley, Wagner College

The Case:  Where do I start?  Dan Hurley led Wagner to 24 wins, a single season school record.  Wagner’s 12 road victories are tied for first in the country (with mid-major power Murray State) this season.  His Seahawks impressed in the non-conference portion of their schedule, with victories over Pittsburgh, Air Force, and Santa Clara to get them the national recognition that no NEC team has ever experienced.  Even if Wagner falls short of winning the postseason championship, Hurley’s Seahawks are still a virtual lock to qualify for the NIT tournament.  What a season it has been for the Green and White in Staten Island.

The Argument:  Like Jim Ferry, Hurley may be a victim of expectations.  Picked 4th in the preseason poll, Wagner was expected to compete for a NEC title given the talent on the roster.  It seems a bit unfair since Hurley did in fact recruit guys like Kenneth Ortiz, Latif Rivers, and Mario Moody, but their conference success comes with little surprise.

The Verdict:  It’s an agonizing decision, but the final coach I will discuss moves just ahead of Hurley, despite Wagner's terrific achievements.  I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if the NEC made Hurley a Co-Coach of the Year, because Hurley and this next coach would each have a legitimate gripe should they finish 2nd in the ballot.

1. Glenn Braica, St. Francis College

The Case:  Second year head coach Glenn Braica led St. Francis to a surprising 5th place finish last season, however the expectations were significantly lower heading into the 2011-2012 campaign.  The Terriers lost their two leading scorers to graduation and then point-guard and team leader Dre Calloway to a shoulder injury.  That situation seems dire, right?  Well all Braica did was better his conference record from last season, by getting his team to buy into a team first mentality while competing hard defensively and on the glass.  In spite of not having a player finish in the NEC top 20 in scoring, Braica willed his team to a 12-6 conference record and a first round home game in the conference tournament.

The Argument:  There really isn’t an argument against Braica, other than stating that Hurley’s record and accomplishments were simply better.  In fact, it’s difficult to come up with a solid argument for any of these coaches.  That's what makes this vote so difficult.

The Verdict:  Given the low expectations, and Braica’s ability to coach his team to victory in several close games, I would vote for Glenn Braica as my 2011-2012 Coach of the Year.

Do you agree or disagree?  And in case you missed it, go here for my NEC Player of the Year and here for my NEC Rookie of the Year selections.

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

The State of the Northeast Conference With Two Weeks Left

With only four regular season games remaining for each Northeast Conference team, it’s an excellent time to break down the standings and look ahead to the final matchups.  Below I laid out the current NEC standings in tiers, went over the tiebreakers, and outlined the likelihood of each team’s potential playoff seed.  For simplicity, I removed both Bryant and Fairleigh Dickinson from the bottom of the standings, since neither will be playing postseason basketball in two weeks.

RANK/TEAM                         CONF W-L                     KEY GAMES LEFT

1) LIU                                           13-1                            vs. QU, SHU, at MU

2) Wagner                                     12-2                             vs. MU

- LIU owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (2-0)

With their sweep over Brooklyn rival St. Francis, LIU is in good shape to capture the regular season title and that coveted home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  Only two more challenging games remain, both of which are at the WRAC.  Even if LIU splits that set, Wagner still needs to win out and hope for LIU to get upset by Monmouth or FDU.  That scenario seems unlikely.

3) St. Francis (NY)                      10-4                              at QU, MU, vs. SHU

4) Robert Morris                          10-4                              vs. CCSU, at SHU, QU

- St. Francis owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

A month ago, Glenn Braica’s Terriers validated their legitimacy with a convincing upset win against an inconsistent Robert Morris squad.  Now, barring a collapse from either team and an improbable end-of-season sweep from Quinnipiac, both teams will host a playoff game in the first round.  Should either advance, they’ll certainly serve as a dangerous opponent for LIU or Wagner in the semifinals.

5) Quinnipiac                                8-6                              at LIU, vs. SFNY, SFPA, RMU

6) Monmouth                                7-7                              at Wag, MSM, vs. LIU, SFNY

7) Central Connecticut                  7-7                              at RMU, SFPA, vs. Wag, MSM

8) Sacred Heart                             7-7                              at LIU, SFNY, vs. RMU, SFPA

- Monmouth owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head-to-head records (MU 2-0, CCSU 1-2, SHU 1-2)

- CCSU own tiebreaker on SHU based on better common record vs. Robert Morris (CCSU 1-0, SHU 0-1)

Quinnipiac is quickly turning into the lower seeded opponent no one wants to play in the NEC tournament.  As noted in Big Apple Buckets, Quinnipiac’s improved defense has sparked a 6-1 record in their past seven games.  Monmouth will have difficultly holding the #6 seed, thanks to their difficult end of season schedule.  Their only saving grace may be that the schedules of CCSU and Sacred Heart are equally as difficult.  CCSU is fortunate there’s significant space between the 8th and 9th teams in the standings, because Howie Dickerman’s Blue Devils are heading the wrong direction, mainly due to their offensive inefficiency.  Once considered to be a NEC title contender, CCSU is presently looking at a difficult first round road showdown against LIU or Wagner.  That’s not what Dickerman envisioned for this roster in the preseason.

9) Mount St. Mary’s                       4-10                              at CCSU, vs. MU  

10) St. Francis (PA)                        4-10                              vs. CCSU, at QU, SHU

- Mount St. Mary’s owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

If you believe in miracles, then perhaps you think these teams have a fighting chance to sneak into the top 8 at season’s end.  St. Francis’s playoff starts on Thursday night, with a date at home against the aforementioned Blue Devils.  A win and their faint hopes are still alive, yet a loss extinguishes that dream.  Mount St. Mary’s is equally as desperate, and it’s very unlikely the Mountaineers will experience an offensive resurgence to catapult them into the NEC tournament.  They do conclude the season with an easy stretch of games, but significant help is still needed from above to grab that #8 seed.  I wouldn't bet on that.

All in all, the playoff qualifiers and regular season champion is close to being decided, but these final two weeks will certainly create some excellent first round match-ups in the NEC tournament.

Pioneer Pride Quick Hits 2 - Fun Conference Stats

I'm fresh off my Hawaiian vacation and ready to go all-in on college basketball for the next two and a half months.  I'm not sure if my wife is ready, but I'll worry about that later.  I spent last Saturday sick in my Maui condo from a stomach bug, listening to St. Francis light up Sacred Heart for 99 points.  That didn't make me feel much better!  But it gave me an opportunity to study the NEC over the break and provide you with my second edition of the Pioneer Pride Quick Hits.  In here, I posted some interesting facts regarding the NEC.

- As a frustrated Sacred Heart fan, the national coverage over the Hurley brothers is starting to get a little nauseating.  First an Andy Katz article and now Jim Halley of USA Today.  Well I'm here to throw a little cold water on the fire, so take a look at these numbers.  Since infamously losing to Wagner in late December, Pittsburgh and Santa Clara have combined to lose nine straight games!  Both teams remain winless in their respective conference divisions and have seen their RPI drop substantially as a result.  Because of their opponent’s nosedive, Wagner’s RPI (now at 78) has continued to dip - despite their current seven game winning streak - so much so that a NIT bid isn’t a guarantee should the Seahawks fail to win the NEC regular season or postseason championship.  Yes, road victories over Big East and West Coast Conference squads are certainly worthy of praise, but perhaps these teams weren’t as good as we originally thought.  I may need to revise my NEC greatest victories list in the future.

- The surprise of the NEC thus far has been the performance of the Terriers of St. Francis New York, who were picked 11th in the NEC Preseason Coaches Poll.  Stefan Perunicic and Ben Mockford have been hot in conference play, totaling more than 6 three-pointers per game.  Freshman Jalen Cannon has been productive in his new starting role, averaging 11 points and 9 boards in his past five contests.  So do the Terriers belong in the top tier of the NEC elite?  Not so fast.  If you toss their blowout loss to Wagner aside, St. Francis has five victories over opponents with a combined NEC record of 7-23.  Sure, St. Francis has taken care of business, but they have yet to square off against CCSU, LIU, or Robert Morris.  The remaining schedule still isn’t too challenging, but I view them as no better than a five seed come NEC tournament time.  Even John Templon of www.nycbuckets.com recently highlighted how lucky St. Francis has been.  Let’s see how they respond against Wagner on Thursday.

- Last month, the Northeast Conference announced the creation of a marketing grant intended to improve game attendance for its institutions.  An eligible grant of $4,000 will be awarded to each of the twelve schools, and in return the school will set up a program designed to draw more fans to their home games.  So far, the NEC’s investment in Sacred Heart has proven to be as prudent as purchasing Italian government bonds.  With more than half of the season complete, Sacred Heart is averaging a pathetic 550 fans per home game, good for dead last in the NEC.  In contrast, the Quinnipiac Bobcats have drawn a NEC leading 1,863 fans per game – I’m sure in large part thanks to their state-of-the-art TD Banknorth Sports Arena.  The attendance numbers should improve for SHU in the coming weeks with school back in session, but I’m guessing that this whole “Heart Attack” student spirit club promotion will be an epic fail.  Much like the Green Bay Packers.  But look at the bright side, if you are one of the few to attend a game at the Pitt, your odds of winning a giveaway are excellent!

- The NEC season is only a third of the way through, but I'm starting to get excited about Fairleigh Dickenson's quest to infamy!  No conference team has ever finished with zero or one conference win at season's end in nearly twenty years, unless you count Bryant's 2009-10 season (which I don't since they're not even tournament eligible until next season).  There's still a long way to go and lots of inferior basketball to be played, but for the moment FDU is 0-6 and has the second worst scoring offense in NEC history (57.8 ppg).  On the flip side, LIU has a chance to become the first NEC team to average at least 86 points per game in NEC play, since the 1997-98 LIU Blackbirds scored an amazing 94.7 points per game.

First Annual Pioneer Pride Northeast Conference Predictions

With the non-conference schedule complete for all Northeast Conference teams, now is a perfect opportunity to post my NEC Season Predictions.  I bet you won’t find these anywhere else!  I rank all of the teams in tiers, provide a brief summary, and attempt to predict each team’s final record and playoff destination.  This is my first year in covering the NEC, so I’d love to read your comments if you agree or disagree with my predictions in any way.  And now, without further ado…

Get Your Shoes Ready, Because You May Be Going to the Big Dance!

1) Robert Morris (16-2 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, NIT bound)

Andy Toole’s Colonials, fresh off an unusual upset over Ohio University in which they committed 31 turnovers and 24 personal fouls, head back into conference play in very good shape.  The unbalanced schedule is kind to them, as they only play Wagner, LIU, and Central Connecticut once this season.  They can defend, rebound, and go nine deep, especially with the recent addition of 6-foot-8 forward Mike McFadden.  I think they’ll quietly snap up the number one seed, only to be upset in the conference semis.

2) Wagner (15-3 regular season, NEC Tournament Champion, NCAA 14 seed)

I’m not sure who has been more loved in the New York area lately – Dan Hurley or Victor Cruz.  Hurley and his Wagner Seahawks have been the talk of the town since their upset victories over Pitt and Santa Clara, even though their early loss to LIU may eventually prevent them from earning the NEC regular season title.  Nonetheless, Wagner’s guards Kenneth Ortiz, Latif Rivers, and Tyler Murray are very efficient and are complimented with a strong low-block presence in 6-foot-11 Neofall Folahan, who leads the NEC with 2 rejections per game.  I think they’ll represent the NEC in the NCAA tourney (as do most people), but at the very worst, they’ll be NIT bound should they fall to LIU or Robert Morris along the way.

Don’t Count Them Out, They Could Be Dangerous

3) Long Island University (13-5 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, CBI/CIT bound)

The high-flying Blackbirds are the most proficient offense in the NEC, averaging a staggering 77 points per game.  They have efficient players that can excel both in the half court and in transition, especially when point guard Jason Brickman dishes the rock without turning it over.  LIU’s big man, Julian Boyd, has been a beast of late, averaging 21 points and 11 rebounds in the past 6 games.  So what is preventing them from going all the way?  They allow as many points as they score per game (77 ppg) and they turn the ball over way too much, with a turnover margin of minus-4.  If they can defend and protect the ball just a little, then perhaps they’ll successfully defend their NEC title and return to the dance.

4) Quinnipiac University (11-7 regular season, NEC First Round)

In their current 5 game winning streak, Tom Moore’s Bobcats have been playing inspired ball on the glass (what else is new) and on the defensive end.  Their young front court depth has been impressive and if Ousmane Drame continues to progress, he’ll be a force to reckon with in the paint.  Throw in leading NEC rebounder Ike Azotam, Jamee Jackson, and freshman Marquis Barnett, and the Bobcats have possibly the deepest front-court around.  For now though, Quinnipiac simply needs to shoot the ball better.  Senior James Johnson can’t do all of the scoring by himself.

5) Central Connecticut State (11-7 regular season, NEC Finalist)

The Blue Devils have slumped of late by losing five straight, but I’m not counting out their scoring trio of Ken Horton, Kyle Vinales, and Robby Ptacek.  Sure, Howie Dickerman’s club has absolutely no depth to speak of, but together the three stars are averaging a mind numbing 59.7 points per game and make up 77.2% of the team’s scoring.  If all three are healthy and firing on all cylinders come playoff time, the Miami Heat of the NEC (ok, maybe that’s a little stretch) will be a very tough out.

6) Sacred Heart University (10-8 regular season, NEC First Round)

I reluctantly placed my Pioneers at the bottom of this tier, even though I’m skeptical that Dave Bike’s roster can make a run at the conference.  They’ve got the star guard (Shane Gibson) and low-block scorer (Justin Swidowski), but as I explained before, they need contributions elsewhere to have a chance.  I can certainly see an upset win or two over a top tier team, but I’m not sure if they can sustain a high level over several games, due to the inconsistency of Evan Kelley, Chris Evans, and Louis Montes and the mostly nonathletic front-court.

Could Make a Little Noise, But Won’t Factor In the Postseason

7) St. Francis, NY (9-9 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Terriers, after a difficult start, have righted the ship to go 4-5 in their last 9 games.  You'll find them in the middle of the NEC statistically in most categories, as they have a balanced attacked with nine players registering double digits in points per 40 minutes.  They don't seem to have that one go-to-guy however, so it remains to be seen how they will succeed in close games.  One key to their success is freshman forward Jalen Cannon (averaging an impressive 7.2 rebounds per game), as his continued improvement should help determine the Terriers fate.

8) St. Francis, PA (7-11 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Red Flash back-court suffered two critical blows to their season within a month.  First of all, leading scorer Umar Shannon was lost for the year due to a ACL injury.  Then a month later, leading assist man Chris Johnson was kicked off the team for violating team rules.  That is worse luck than this poor sap! (FYI - skip ahead to the 0:40 second mark)  Don’t be fooled by the Red Flash’s 2-0 NEC record, since they beat Monmouth and FDU at home.  The schedule gets more difficult in a hurry with matchups against CCSU, Sacred Heart, and Quinnipiac in 3 of the next 4 games.

It’s Gonna Be a Really Long Season

9) Mount St. Marys (6-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Mount St. Mary’s has defended well the past 5 games, yet only have one win to show for it, thanks to a woeful effort on the offensive side of the ball.  Currently, there are in the bottom 15% of the nation in scoring, rebounds and shooting percentage.  Despite these hideous stats, one fourth of the league is even more hideous, so the Mount’s respectable defense should give them a few conference wins to build on for next season.

10) Monmouth University (4-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Since getting bashed by St. Francis (PA) and Robert Morris, Monmouth has played better basketball of late, which certainly isn’t saying much.  When your team is dead last in the NEC in scoring margin (minus-20), effective field goal percentage, and effective field goal percentage defense, bad things are going to happen.  5-foot-8 junior guard Jesse Steele and 6-foot-6 freshman guard Andrew Nicholas have been the lone bright spots for the Hawks.  (And now I’m done saying nice things about the bottom feeders of the NEC.  Moving along…)

11) Fairleigh Dickenson (3-15 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

What is there really to say?  Picked last in the NEC Preseason Coaches Poll, the Knights of Fairleigh Dickinson have played two games so far – yes two games – where they didn’t lose by double digits.  The roster, filled with mostly juniors and seniors, has quite frankly no future, both a year from now and three years from now.

12) Bryant University (3-15 regular season, ineligible for NEC tournament)

After flirting with conference respectability last season, Bryant University is back to their familiar  position as a cellar dweller.  They’ve been punished in their past 11 games, falling by an average of 17 points per game.  At this point, call it a moral victory if the Bulldogs can half their win total from last year.  Or win a game on the road.