The State of the Northeast Conference With Two Weeks Left

With only four regular season games remaining for each Northeast Conference team, it’s an excellent time to break down the standings and look ahead to the final matchups.  Below I laid out the current NEC standings in tiers, went over the tiebreakers, and outlined the likelihood of each team’s potential playoff seed.  For simplicity, I removed both Bryant and Fairleigh Dickinson from the bottom of the standings, since neither will be playing postseason basketball in two weeks.

RANK/TEAM                         CONF W-L                     KEY GAMES LEFT

1) LIU                                           13-1                            vs. QU, SHU, at MU

2) Wagner                                     12-2                             vs. MU

- LIU owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (2-0)

With their sweep over Brooklyn rival St. Francis, LIU is in good shape to capture the regular season title and that coveted home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  Only two more challenging games remain, both of which are at the WRAC.  Even if LIU splits that set, Wagner still needs to win out and hope for LIU to get upset by Monmouth or FDU.  That scenario seems unlikely.

3) St. Francis (NY)                      10-4                              at QU, MU, vs. SHU

4) Robert Morris                          10-4                              vs. CCSU, at SHU, QU

- St. Francis owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

A month ago, Glenn Braica’s Terriers validated their legitimacy with a convincing upset win against an inconsistent Robert Morris squad.  Now, barring a collapse from either team and an improbable end-of-season sweep from Quinnipiac, both teams will host a playoff game in the first round.  Should either advance, they’ll certainly serve as a dangerous opponent for LIU or Wagner in the semifinals.

5) Quinnipiac                                8-6                              at LIU, vs. SFNY, SFPA, RMU

6) Monmouth                                7-7                              at Wag, MSM, vs. LIU, SFNY

7) Central Connecticut                  7-7                              at RMU, SFPA, vs. Wag, MSM

8) Sacred Heart                             7-7                              at LIU, SFNY, vs. RMU, SFPA

- Monmouth owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head-to-head records (MU 2-0, CCSU 1-2, SHU 1-2)

- CCSU own tiebreaker on SHU based on better common record vs. Robert Morris (CCSU 1-0, SHU 0-1)

Quinnipiac is quickly turning into the lower seeded opponent no one wants to play in the NEC tournament.  As noted in Big Apple Buckets, Quinnipiac’s improved defense has sparked a 6-1 record in their past seven games.  Monmouth will have difficultly holding the #6 seed, thanks to their difficult end of season schedule.  Their only saving grace may be that the schedules of CCSU and Sacred Heart are equally as difficult.  CCSU is fortunate there’s significant space between the 8th and 9th teams in the standings, because Howie Dickerman’s Blue Devils are heading the wrong direction, mainly due to their offensive inefficiency.  Once considered to be a NEC title contender, CCSU is presently looking at a difficult first round road showdown against LIU or Wagner.  That’s not what Dickerman envisioned for this roster in the preseason.

9) Mount St. Mary’s                       4-10                              at CCSU, vs. MU  

10) St. Francis (PA)                        4-10                              vs. CCSU, at QU, SHU

- Mount St. Mary’s owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

If you believe in miracles, then perhaps you think these teams have a fighting chance to sneak into the top 8 at season’s end.  St. Francis’s playoff starts on Thursday night, with a date at home against the aforementioned Blue Devils.  A win and their faint hopes are still alive, yet a loss extinguishes that dream.  Mount St. Mary’s is equally as desperate, and it’s very unlikely the Mountaineers will experience an offensive resurgence to catapult them into the NEC tournament.  They do conclude the season with an easy stretch of games, but significant help is still needed from above to grab that #8 seed.  I wouldn't bet on that.

All in all, the playoff qualifiers and regular season champion is close to being decided, but these final two weeks will certainly create some excellent first round match-ups in the NEC tournament.

First Annual Pioneer Pride Northeast Conference Predictions

With the non-conference schedule complete for all Northeast Conference teams, now is a perfect opportunity to post my NEC Season Predictions.  I bet you won’t find these anywhere else!  I rank all of the teams in tiers, provide a brief summary, and attempt to predict each team’s final record and playoff destination.  This is my first year in covering the NEC, so I’d love to read your comments if you agree or disagree with my predictions in any way.  And now, without further ado…

Get Your Shoes Ready, Because You May Be Going to the Big Dance!

1) Robert Morris (16-2 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, NIT bound)

Andy Toole’s Colonials, fresh off an unusual upset over Ohio University in which they committed 31 turnovers and 24 personal fouls, head back into conference play in very good shape.  The unbalanced schedule is kind to them, as they only play Wagner, LIU, and Central Connecticut once this season.  They can defend, rebound, and go nine deep, especially with the recent addition of 6-foot-8 forward Mike McFadden.  I think they’ll quietly snap up the number one seed, only to be upset in the conference semis.

2) Wagner (15-3 regular season, NEC Tournament Champion, NCAA 14 seed)

I’m not sure who has been more loved in the New York area lately – Dan Hurley or Victor Cruz.  Hurley and his Wagner Seahawks have been the talk of the town since their upset victories over Pitt and Santa Clara, even though their early loss to LIU may eventually prevent them from earning the NEC regular season title.  Nonetheless, Wagner’s guards Kenneth Ortiz, Latif Rivers, and Tyler Murray are very efficient and are complimented with a strong low-block presence in 6-foot-11 Neofall Folahan, who leads the NEC with 2 rejections per game.  I think they’ll represent the NEC in the NCAA tourney (as do most people), but at the very worst, they’ll be NIT bound should they fall to LIU or Robert Morris along the way.

Don’t Count Them Out, They Could Be Dangerous

3) Long Island University (13-5 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, CBI/CIT bound)

The high-flying Blackbirds are the most proficient offense in the NEC, averaging a staggering 77 points per game.  They have efficient players that can excel both in the half court and in transition, especially when point guard Jason Brickman dishes the rock without turning it over.  LIU’s big man, Julian Boyd, has been a beast of late, averaging 21 points and 11 rebounds in the past 6 games.  So what is preventing them from going all the way?  They allow as many points as they score per game (77 ppg) and they turn the ball over way too much, with a turnover margin of minus-4.  If they can defend and protect the ball just a little, then perhaps they’ll successfully defend their NEC title and return to the dance.

4) Quinnipiac University (11-7 regular season, NEC First Round)

In their current 5 game winning streak, Tom Moore’s Bobcats have been playing inspired ball on the glass (what else is new) and on the defensive end.  Their young front court depth has been impressive and if Ousmane Drame continues to progress, he’ll be a force to reckon with in the paint.  Throw in leading NEC rebounder Ike Azotam, Jamee Jackson, and freshman Marquis Barnett, and the Bobcats have possibly the deepest front-court around.  For now though, Quinnipiac simply needs to shoot the ball better.  Senior James Johnson can’t do all of the scoring by himself.

5) Central Connecticut State (11-7 regular season, NEC Finalist)

The Blue Devils have slumped of late by losing five straight, but I’m not counting out their scoring trio of Ken Horton, Kyle Vinales, and Robby Ptacek.  Sure, Howie Dickerman’s club has absolutely no depth to speak of, but together the three stars are averaging a mind numbing 59.7 points per game and make up 77.2% of the team’s scoring.  If all three are healthy and firing on all cylinders come playoff time, the Miami Heat of the NEC (ok, maybe that’s a little stretch) will be a very tough out.

6) Sacred Heart University (10-8 regular season, NEC First Round)

I reluctantly placed my Pioneers at the bottom of this tier, even though I’m skeptical that Dave Bike’s roster can make a run at the conference.  They’ve got the star guard (Shane Gibson) and low-block scorer (Justin Swidowski), but as I explained before, they need contributions elsewhere to have a chance.  I can certainly see an upset win or two over a top tier team, but I’m not sure if they can sustain a high level over several games, due to the inconsistency of Evan Kelley, Chris Evans, and Louis Montes and the mostly nonathletic front-court.

Could Make a Little Noise, But Won’t Factor In the Postseason

7) St. Francis, NY (9-9 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Terriers, after a difficult start, have righted the ship to go 4-5 in their last 9 games.  You'll find them in the middle of the NEC statistically in most categories, as they have a balanced attacked with nine players registering double digits in points per 40 minutes.  They don't seem to have that one go-to-guy however, so it remains to be seen how they will succeed in close games.  One key to their success is freshman forward Jalen Cannon (averaging an impressive 7.2 rebounds per game), as his continued improvement should help determine the Terriers fate.

8) St. Francis, PA (7-11 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Red Flash back-court suffered two critical blows to their season within a month.  First of all, leading scorer Umar Shannon was lost for the year due to a ACL injury.  Then a month later, leading assist man Chris Johnson was kicked off the team for violating team rules.  That is worse luck than this poor sap! (FYI - skip ahead to the 0:40 second mark)  Don’t be fooled by the Red Flash’s 2-0 NEC record, since they beat Monmouth and FDU at home.  The schedule gets more difficult in a hurry with matchups against CCSU, Sacred Heart, and Quinnipiac in 3 of the next 4 games.

It’s Gonna Be a Really Long Season

9) Mount St. Marys (6-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Mount St. Mary’s has defended well the past 5 games, yet only have one win to show for it, thanks to a woeful effort on the offensive side of the ball.  Currently, there are in the bottom 15% of the nation in scoring, rebounds and shooting percentage.  Despite these hideous stats, one fourth of the league is even more hideous, so the Mount’s respectable defense should give them a few conference wins to build on for next season.

10) Monmouth University (4-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Since getting bashed by St. Francis (PA) and Robert Morris, Monmouth has played better basketball of late, which certainly isn’t saying much.  When your team is dead last in the NEC in scoring margin (minus-20), effective field goal percentage, and effective field goal percentage defense, bad things are going to happen.  5-foot-8 junior guard Jesse Steele and 6-foot-6 freshman guard Andrew Nicholas have been the lone bright spots for the Hawks.  (And now I’m done saying nice things about the bottom feeders of the NEC.  Moving along…)

11) Fairleigh Dickenson (3-15 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

What is there really to say?  Picked last in the NEC Preseason Coaches Poll, the Knights of Fairleigh Dickinson have played two games so far – yes two games – where they didn’t lose by double digits.  The roster, filled with mostly juniors and seniors, has quite frankly no future, both a year from now and three years from now.

12) Bryant University (3-15 regular season, ineligible for NEC tournament)

After flirting with conference respectability last season, Bryant University is back to their familiar  position as a cellar dweller.  They’ve been punished in their past 11 games, falling by an average of 17 points per game.  At this point, call it a moral victory if the Bulldogs can half their win total from last year.  Or win a game on the road.

SHU Showing an Improvement, but Inexperience Still Holds Their Potential Back

It’s been a while since I provided you the people a blog post on the Pioneers, so now is just as good a time as any.  I’m finally recovered from a festive holiday party over the weekend that included great friends, turducken (it was delicious, thanks for asking), and unfortunately, cocktails with a high concentration of sweet tea vodka (my stomach is still churning).  But now I’m cleansed and refreshed, so it’s time for a Sacred Heart update!

12 games are now complete.  6 wins, 6 losses.  1-1 in the Northeast conference.  Borrowing the poignant words of former NFL head coach Dennis Green, the Sacred Heart Pioneers are who I thought they were!  They are an improving roster of talent that is currently limited due to their inexperience and inconsistency.

After an encouraging 5-3 start to the season, Sacred Heart (6-6, 1-1 NEC) dropped 3 straight games - 2 of which lost at the final buzzer - before defeating Lafayette 84-79 last Sunday.  Most glaring, Sacred Heart is now 1-3 in games where either team is within 4 points or less in the final 2 minutes.  Inexperience is raring its ugly head, late in these pivotal games.

Case in point….I witnessed the gut-wrenching loss to the Central Connecticut Blue Devils two Saturdays ago in dangerous New Britain, CT, thanks to me brokering a deal where I agreed to go Christmas shopping with my wife immediately after the game (I know, I know, but I REALLY wanted to see this game).  We entered the crowded gymnasium (no seriously it was crowded and kind of hostile too, and you thought no one cared about NEC basketball) with about 15 minutes left in the 2nd half, and Central firmly in control with a 12 point lead.  But then the Shane Gibson show began.  Before we could get comfortable in our seats, Gibson and company had gone on a scintillating 30-10 run to take 8 point advantage with 6 minutes remaining in the game.  Even my wife began openly cheering for SHU, especially when I told her that Justin Swidowski was probably Polish.

Then SHU’s inexperience began to set in.  Central’s elite senior duo of Robby Ptacek and Ken Horton began hitting shots.  Central’s defense picked up its intensity.  Swidowski, after effortlessly scoring 19 points in the first 34 minutes of the game, stopped getting open in the low block.  The offense, sans Gibson, became too tentative and as a result, Gibson began talking ill-advised shots.  The crowd got louder and louder.  Positioned in my seat behind the SHU bench, I could now see the spit flying out of Dave Bike and Anthony Latina’s mouth, as they angrily pleaded with their players to finish off the Blue Devils (Johnny Kidd, to no ones surprise, said very little).  Next thing I knew, Central had tied the game with 1:10 remaining on a three by the tattooed up white boy Ptacek.

This mini-collapse, mind you, shouldn't have been a disappointment.  This was a Central team that is built to win now.  When you have two seniors averaging nearly 20 points per game, a trip to the NCAA tournament IS the goal.  What disappointed me, however, was the inability of SHU to close out the game, mainly due to a stagnant offense in the final minute.  Inexperience…

The first possession with a minute left led to Evan Kelley - the quintessential talented, yet at times erratic player on SHU's roster - dribbling around like he was Allen Iverson (the one who played briefly in Turkey, not the 76ers MVP one) and finally hoisting up a 25 footer late in the shot clock.  Suffice it to say, the shot didn't go in, and Central grabbed the rebound.  I seriously doubt that was the play Bike called in the huddle.  Luckily for SHU, Ptacek committed an offensive foul on the other end, giving the Pioneers a chance to win the game on their final possession.  What innovative play would Bike and his staff draw up?

It ended up being the same old isolation shit.  Central wisely doubled Gibson at the top of the key, who then was forced to pass it.  Finally, after a game of hot potato around the perimeter, a surprised Steve Glowiak attempted a contested, last second 3-pointer in the corner that probably had a 4.5671% chance of going in.  Sadly, I was not able rush the court, rip off my shirt, and flip off the creepy Blue Devil mascot in celebration, as the shot missed badly.

Despite their lack of execution late and Central’s momentum, there was SHU with another chance in overtime to take the lead down one with 13 seconds remaining.  Swidowski, after being hacked on the put-back to an offensive rebound, proceeded to brick two pressurized free throws and thereby hand Central firm control of the game.  In the end, a running three by Evan Kelley for the win was too strong and Central escaped with a riveting 82-80 victory.

It was a brutal loss, because they had a quality team on the ropes and twice fell short.  Two evenings later, SHU validated their lack of experience by losing another nail-biter to the Yale Bulldogs.  This affair proved just as sickening for Pioneer fans with Gibson missing an open three at the buzzer that would have won the game. 

Truth be told, it’s better to lose these games now than late in the season.  But before we get all excited about the improved talent on Bike’s roster, we must see maturation from these Pioneers.  We must see certain players step up, so Bike doesn’t change his late game lineup from game to game.  These are the games SHU needs to pull out to take that next step.  So far the next step feels like mountain, as they struggle to gain the necessary experience to become an elite NEC squad.

With any luck, that next step will come.  Maybe Kelley will swing the ball around before panicking late in the shot clock.  Maybe Swidowski will calm down under the pressure and sink those free throws.  And maybe, just maybe, Bike and his staff will stay away from those stupid isolation sets, and call a real play, centered around his star, Shane Gibson.  It is this fan’s hope that these bitter losses will harden the resolve of the Pioneers before the 2011-2012 season is over.

And for those of you wondering, shopping at the mall after the Central loss was as horrendous as it sounded.  I spent the majority of my time at Macys wondering if Swidowski was thinking about those missed free throws as much as I was.  There’s a decent chance that he wasn’t...