The 2011-12 Northeast Conference End of Season Recap - Part 1

For decades now, the Northeast Conference (NEC) has served as the doormat of men’s college basketball.  Never in the NEC’s 30 year history has there been one NCAA at-large bid, nor has there been a single NCAA victory for a NEC team in the round of 64.  Not one.  This season wasn’t any different and to the casual fan, a glance at the conference RPI ratings showed a mild at best improvement for the NEC when compared to the other conferences (NEC was rated 24th out of 31 conferences in RPI).

Long Island University qualified for the NCAA tournament as a #16 seed, yet proved to be no match against the bigger and more athletic Michigan State Spartans.  The NIT committee felt no other NEC team deserved inclusion into their tournament, and notably shut out the Wagner Seahawks, despite winning a school record 25 games.  And only two other teams, Quinnipiac and Robert Morris, played in the lesser known and least cared about CTI and CBI postseason tournaments.  It appeared to be just another ho-hum year for the NEC.

But take a closer look.  For the first time since the 1995-96 season, three NEC teams finished their season with more than 20 wins.  Robert Morris and Wagner each had impressively (at least at the time) defeated some quality non-conference opponents, with the most notable being NCAA Sweet 16 participant Ohio University and traditional Big East power (although not this year) Pittsburgh.  In addition, the NEC’s top three programs, LIU, Robert Morris, and Wagner, will graduate only one starter from each of their rosters. Other teams, such as Quinnipiac, Monmouth, and St. Francis (NY), took a sizable step forward and should reek of optimism heading into next season.

All in all, the 2011-12 season may serve as the year it started to turn around for the NEC.  Next season may be the first time in 16 years that the NEC gets three teams into the NCAA and NIT.  And make no mistake, the NEC will someday get that elusive NCAA round of 64 win, and I would say it’s coming sooner than later.

With that, I give you my two part Northeast Conference men's basketball season recap.  Rather than bombard you with 2,200+ words in one monster post, I decided to break it up.  I'll first go over the bottom half of the league and then recap the upper half in a couple of days.

12. Bryant Bulldogs, 2-28 (1-17 NEC)

We begin with the last place Bryant Bulldogs, who at least have the excuse of transitioning their program into Division 1.  Next season, the Bulldogs will be eligible to play in the NEC postseason tournament, although getting there will certainly be a long shot.  Bryant wasn’t supposed to end their 2011-12 season with one conference win however, especially after winning 7 NEC games in the season prior.  But despite returning Alex Francis and Frankie Dobbs, the Bulldogs finished dead last in both offense efficiency (0.90 points per possession) and defensive efficiency (1.10 points allowed per possession).  The nadir has been reached, and at least Bryant will have the optimism of participating as a fully integrated Division 1 school for the 2012-13 season.  Hopefully that will produce some decent recruits and a couple of more wins in Smithfield, Rhode Island.

11. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, 3-26 (2-16 NEC)

Barely higher on the totem pole were the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, who have officially hit rock bottom this season.  That’s saying a lot, since the Knights have averaged a measly 7 wins per season since their 20 win campaign in 2006.  The team, mostly comprised of upperclassmen, at the very least will usher in five freshmen onto next season’s roster.  Melquin Boldin will return next season as the Knight's leading scorer, but his 15.1 points per game was clearly compiled through heavy shot volume, as evident by his 35% effective field goal percentage.  It’s tough to see this team winning more than 4 or 5 games in conference next season, but stranger things have certainly happened.

10. St. Francis (PA) Red Flash, 6-23 (5-13 NEC)

Don Friday’s fourth season as the Red Flash’s coach didn’t bring the marked improvement the St. Francis (PA) faithful could have expected.  To be fair, the season got off to a dreadful start when junior Umar Shannon injured his ACL in the second game of the season, only to be lost for the year.  Then to make matters worse, junior Chris Johnson was dismissed by Coach Friday for violating team rules.  Well so much for that. What ensued was another hapless season for the Red Flash, who found themselves giving up an average of 1.06 points per possession on defense.  The lone bright spot was the NEC Most Improved Player, Scott Eatherton, who averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds per game, despite only logging 10 minutes per game as a freshman the previous season.  Pair him with Shannon and a trio of sophomores who played significant minutes this season, and St. Francis has a respectable chance to qualify for next season's NEC tournament.

9. Mount St. Mary’s, 8-21 (6-12 NEC)

It was an apathetic season at the Knott Arena, which surely captured the now departed head coach Robert Burke’s temperament.  Of course, there was never anything to get excited about, since the Mountaineers failed to defeat a team all season with a winning record.  Of the four freshmen inserted into this season’s roster, only Kelvin Parker made a real contribution and he was a walk-on from the football team.  With Burke’s failure however, comes reason for optimism. Former Mount St. Mary’s player and captain Jamion Christian has been brought in to right the ship, fresh off assisting one of the best young coaches in the league in Shaka Smart.  Christian certainly has a lot of work ahead of him - especially with the departure of Danny Thompson and Lamar Trice - but there is now hope that the program can someday be restored back to the productive days under Milan Brown.

8. Sacred Heart Pioneers, 14-18 (8-10 NEC)

If you read my blog regularly this season, you surely understood the heartbreak my beloved Sacred Heart Pioneers endured for the 2011-12 season.  8 games in the conference were lost in the final 3 minutes of the game, with 5 of those coming against Robert Morris, LIU, and St. Francis.  A remarkable season from Shane Gibson ended up being wasted on late game disappointments and chronic inconsistency from everyone playing behind Gibson.  Add to that an evident lack of depth in the front-court, and you have the recipe of a team that underachieved to 8 conference wins.  Despite this, the Pioneers go into the 2012-13 season with more front-court help and a final season from Shane Gibson and 6-foot-9 big man Justin Swidowski, who now has a Division 1 season under his belt.  It’s certainly reasonable to expect a progression, if and only if the roster matures and learns from their late game failure.

7. Central Connecticut Blue Devils, 13-16 (10-8 NEC)

Howie Dickerman had the talent to compete for a NEC Championship this season, however a complete lack of depth apparently doomed the team.  After the big three of Ken Horton, Robby Ptacek, and Kyle Vinales, the next highest scorer on the roster was junior Joe Efase, who (get this) averaged 3.9 points per game!  The result was star studded team up front that failed to score the basketball with any type of consistency.  Therefore, when the defense gave up more than 0.97 points per possession in a game, Central Connecticut went 0-13.  Now with Horton and Ptacek gone, Dickerman will probably need a year to fully rebuild with Vinales and Malcolm McMillan serving as the foundation.

For Part 2 of the NEC End of Season Recap, go here.

The State of the Northeast Conference With Two Weeks Left

With only four regular season games remaining for each Northeast Conference team, it’s an excellent time to break down the standings and look ahead to the final matchups.  Below I laid out the current NEC standings in tiers, went over the tiebreakers, and outlined the likelihood of each team’s potential playoff seed.  For simplicity, I removed both Bryant and Fairleigh Dickinson from the bottom of the standings, since neither will be playing postseason basketball in two weeks.

RANK/TEAM                         CONF W-L                     KEY GAMES LEFT

1) LIU                                           13-1                            vs. QU, SHU, at MU

2) Wagner                                     12-2                             vs. MU

- LIU owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (2-0)

With their sweep over Brooklyn rival St. Francis, LIU is in good shape to capture the regular season title and that coveted home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  Only two more challenging games remain, both of which are at the WRAC.  Even if LIU splits that set, Wagner still needs to win out and hope for LIU to get upset by Monmouth or FDU.  That scenario seems unlikely.

3) St. Francis (NY)                      10-4                              at QU, MU, vs. SHU

4) Robert Morris                          10-4                              vs. CCSU, at SHU, QU

- St. Francis owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

A month ago, Glenn Braica’s Terriers validated their legitimacy with a convincing upset win against an inconsistent Robert Morris squad.  Now, barring a collapse from either team and an improbable end-of-season sweep from Quinnipiac, both teams will host a playoff game in the first round.  Should either advance, they’ll certainly serve as a dangerous opponent for LIU or Wagner in the semifinals.

5) Quinnipiac                                8-6                              at LIU, vs. SFNY, SFPA, RMU

6) Monmouth                                7-7                              at Wag, MSM, vs. LIU, SFNY

7) Central Connecticut                  7-7                              at RMU, SFPA, vs. Wag, MSM

8) Sacred Heart                             7-7                              at LIU, SFNY, vs. RMU, SFPA

- Monmouth owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head-to-head records (MU 2-0, CCSU 1-2, SHU 1-2)

- CCSU own tiebreaker on SHU based on better common record vs. Robert Morris (CCSU 1-0, SHU 0-1)

Quinnipiac is quickly turning into the lower seeded opponent no one wants to play in the NEC tournament.  As noted in Big Apple Buckets, Quinnipiac’s improved defense has sparked a 6-1 record in their past seven games.  Monmouth will have difficultly holding the #6 seed, thanks to their difficult end of season schedule.  Their only saving grace may be that the schedules of CCSU and Sacred Heart are equally as difficult.  CCSU is fortunate there’s significant space between the 8th and 9th teams in the standings, because Howie Dickerman’s Blue Devils are heading the wrong direction, mainly due to their offensive inefficiency.  Once considered to be a NEC title contender, CCSU is presently looking at a difficult first round road showdown against LIU or Wagner.  That’s not what Dickerman envisioned for this roster in the preseason.

9) Mount St. Mary’s                       4-10                              at CCSU, vs. MU  

10) St. Francis (PA)                        4-10                              vs. CCSU, at QU, SHU

- Mount St. Mary’s owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

If you believe in miracles, then perhaps you think these teams have a fighting chance to sneak into the top 8 at season’s end.  St. Francis’s playoff starts on Thursday night, with a date at home against the aforementioned Blue Devils.  A win and their faint hopes are still alive, yet a loss extinguishes that dream.  Mount St. Mary’s is equally as desperate, and it’s very unlikely the Mountaineers will experience an offensive resurgence to catapult them into the NEC tournament.  They do conclude the season with an easy stretch of games, but significant help is still needed from above to grab that #8 seed.  I wouldn't bet on that.

All in all, the playoff qualifiers and regular season champion is close to being decided, but these final two weeks will certainly create some excellent first round match-ups in the NEC tournament.

First Annual Pioneer Pride Northeast Conference Predictions

With the non-conference schedule complete for all Northeast Conference teams, now is a perfect opportunity to post my NEC Season Predictions.  I bet you won’t find these anywhere else!  I rank all of the teams in tiers, provide a brief summary, and attempt to predict each team’s final record and playoff destination.  This is my first year in covering the NEC, so I’d love to read your comments if you agree or disagree with my predictions in any way.  And now, without further ado…

Get Your Shoes Ready, Because You May Be Going to the Big Dance!

1) Robert Morris (16-2 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, NIT bound)

Andy Toole’s Colonials, fresh off an unusual upset over Ohio University in which they committed 31 turnovers and 24 personal fouls, head back into conference play in very good shape.  The unbalanced schedule is kind to them, as they only play Wagner, LIU, and Central Connecticut once this season.  They can defend, rebound, and go nine deep, especially with the recent addition of 6-foot-8 forward Mike McFadden.  I think they’ll quietly snap up the number one seed, only to be upset in the conference semis.

2) Wagner (15-3 regular season, NEC Tournament Champion, NCAA 14 seed)

I’m not sure who has been more loved in the New York area lately – Dan Hurley or Victor Cruz.  Hurley and his Wagner Seahawks have been the talk of the town since their upset victories over Pitt and Santa Clara, even though their early loss to LIU may eventually prevent them from earning the NEC regular season title.  Nonetheless, Wagner’s guards Kenneth Ortiz, Latif Rivers, and Tyler Murray are very efficient and are complimented with a strong low-block presence in 6-foot-11 Neofall Folahan, who leads the NEC with 2 rejections per game.  I think they’ll represent the NEC in the NCAA tourney (as do most people), but at the very worst, they’ll be NIT bound should they fall to LIU or Robert Morris along the way.

Don’t Count Them Out, They Could Be Dangerous

3) Long Island University (13-5 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, CBI/CIT bound)

The high-flying Blackbirds are the most proficient offense in the NEC, averaging a staggering 77 points per game.  They have efficient players that can excel both in the half court and in transition, especially when point guard Jason Brickman dishes the rock without turning it over.  LIU’s big man, Julian Boyd, has been a beast of late, averaging 21 points and 11 rebounds in the past 6 games.  So what is preventing them from going all the way?  They allow as many points as they score per game (77 ppg) and they turn the ball over way too much, with a turnover margin of minus-4.  If they can defend and protect the ball just a little, then perhaps they’ll successfully defend their NEC title and return to the dance.

4) Quinnipiac University (11-7 regular season, NEC First Round)

In their current 5 game winning streak, Tom Moore’s Bobcats have been playing inspired ball on the glass (what else is new) and on the defensive end.  Their young front court depth has been impressive and if Ousmane Drame continues to progress, he’ll be a force to reckon with in the paint.  Throw in leading NEC rebounder Ike Azotam, Jamee Jackson, and freshman Marquis Barnett, and the Bobcats have possibly the deepest front-court around.  For now though, Quinnipiac simply needs to shoot the ball better.  Senior James Johnson can’t do all of the scoring by himself.

5) Central Connecticut State (11-7 regular season, NEC Finalist)

The Blue Devils have slumped of late by losing five straight, but I’m not counting out their scoring trio of Ken Horton, Kyle Vinales, and Robby Ptacek.  Sure, Howie Dickerman’s club has absolutely no depth to speak of, but together the three stars are averaging a mind numbing 59.7 points per game and make up 77.2% of the team’s scoring.  If all three are healthy and firing on all cylinders come playoff time, the Miami Heat of the NEC (ok, maybe that’s a little stretch) will be a very tough out.

6) Sacred Heart University (10-8 regular season, NEC First Round)

I reluctantly placed my Pioneers at the bottom of this tier, even though I’m skeptical that Dave Bike’s roster can make a run at the conference.  They’ve got the star guard (Shane Gibson) and low-block scorer (Justin Swidowski), but as I explained before, they need contributions elsewhere to have a chance.  I can certainly see an upset win or two over a top tier team, but I’m not sure if they can sustain a high level over several games, due to the inconsistency of Evan Kelley, Chris Evans, and Louis Montes and the mostly nonathletic front-court.

Could Make a Little Noise, But Won’t Factor In the Postseason

7) St. Francis, NY (9-9 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Terriers, after a difficult start, have righted the ship to go 4-5 in their last 9 games.  You'll find them in the middle of the NEC statistically in most categories, as they have a balanced attacked with nine players registering double digits in points per 40 minutes.  They don't seem to have that one go-to-guy however, so it remains to be seen how they will succeed in close games.  One key to their success is freshman forward Jalen Cannon (averaging an impressive 7.2 rebounds per game), as his continued improvement should help determine the Terriers fate.

8) St. Francis, PA (7-11 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Red Flash back-court suffered two critical blows to their season within a month.  First of all, leading scorer Umar Shannon was lost for the year due to a ACL injury.  Then a month later, leading assist man Chris Johnson was kicked off the team for violating team rules.  That is worse luck than this poor sap! (FYI - skip ahead to the 0:40 second mark)  Don’t be fooled by the Red Flash’s 2-0 NEC record, since they beat Monmouth and FDU at home.  The schedule gets more difficult in a hurry with matchups against CCSU, Sacred Heart, and Quinnipiac in 3 of the next 4 games.

It’s Gonna Be a Really Long Season

9) Mount St. Marys (6-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Mount St. Mary’s has defended well the past 5 games, yet only have one win to show for it, thanks to a woeful effort on the offensive side of the ball.  Currently, there are in the bottom 15% of the nation in scoring, rebounds and shooting percentage.  Despite these hideous stats, one fourth of the league is even more hideous, so the Mount’s respectable defense should give them a few conference wins to build on for next season.

10) Monmouth University (4-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Since getting bashed by St. Francis (PA) and Robert Morris, Monmouth has played better basketball of late, which certainly isn’t saying much.  When your team is dead last in the NEC in scoring margin (minus-20), effective field goal percentage, and effective field goal percentage defense, bad things are going to happen.  5-foot-8 junior guard Jesse Steele and 6-foot-6 freshman guard Andrew Nicholas have been the lone bright spots for the Hawks.  (And now I’m done saying nice things about the bottom feeders of the NEC.  Moving along…)

11) Fairleigh Dickenson (3-15 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

What is there really to say?  Picked last in the NEC Preseason Coaches Poll, the Knights of Fairleigh Dickinson have played two games so far – yes two games – where they didn’t lose by double digits.  The roster, filled with mostly juniors and seniors, has quite frankly no future, both a year from now and three years from now.

12) Bryant University (3-15 regular season, ineligible for NEC tournament)

After flirting with conference respectability last season, Bryant University is back to their familiar  position as a cellar dweller.  They’ve been punished in their past 11 games, falling by an average of 17 points per game.  At this point, call it a moral victory if the Bulldogs can half their win total from last year.  Or win a game on the road.