The 2011-2012 Northeast Conference End of Season Recap - Part 2

For Part 1 of the NEC Season Recap, go here.

6.  Monmouth Hawks, 12-20 (10-8 NEC) 

For more than half of the season, the Monmouth Hawks looked like the same old mediocre team, as they stumbled out to a 3-16 and 1-5 conference record.  At that point however, first year head coach King Rice's effect on the roster began to take hold, as the Hawks finished the season improbably winning 9 of their final 13 contests.  The late season surge was thanks to playing inspired defense and using a well balanced scoring attack, led by diminutive junior guard Jesse Steele.  Now, the future looks brighter for the Rice's kids, especially with the impressive recruiting haul coming in for the 2012-13 season.  With that said, I would be cautious to project an improvement from 10 conference victories, but make no mistake, NEC teams can no longer expect an easy victory when they play the Monmouth Hawks.

5.  Quinnipiac Bobcats, 18-14 (10-8 NEC)

It was another season of controlling the boards for Quinnipiac, as they finished 2nd in the nation in rebounding percentage.  Ousmane Drame showed glimpses of how dominating he and front-court mate Ike Azotam could be when each is playing at a high level.  When the defensive intensity was there for Tom Moore’s squad, the Bobcats could certainly get by most nights with a victory.  But when they squared off against the offensively powered NEC elite, specifically Wagner and LIU, the Bobcats simply couldn’t match their opponent's offensive output.  Losing All-NEC 2nd Teamer James Johnson won’t help, so the big question heading into next season is how much will the rest of the team, mainly Zaid Hearst, Nate Gause, and Jamee Jackson pick up the scoring slack?  Quinnipiac has been close the last couple of years, but offensive efficiency still impedes their ability to secure their first ever NCAA tournament bid.

4.  St. Francis (NY) Terriers 16-15 (12-6 NEC)

If you take out the first 5 games and the last 3 games of the Terrier’s season, it was a fantastic run for the team that called Pope Education Center home.  Unfortunately, the entire season counts and injuries depleted Glenn Braica’s roster just enough to be ousted in the first round of the NEC tourney by Quinnipiac.  Even with the early round exit, Braica rightfully earned NEC Coach of the Year honors, as he did a masterful job squeezing 12 conference wins out of a no-name roster that lost starting guard Dre Calloway to a shoulder injury.  Looking ahead, the nucleus of Ben Mockford, Travis Nichols, Brent Jones and Jalen Cannon should give NEC teams a battle every single night.  Given how competitive the conference has become however, projecting St. Francis to match their 12 conference wins next season may be a tad bullish.

3.  Robert Morris Colonials, 26-11 (13-5 NEC)
With much of the hype on Wagner and Long Island throughout the season, all the Colonials did was quietly compile a 13-5 conference record en route to a #3 seed in the NEC tourney.  From there, Velton Jones and company essentially ended Dan Hurley's career at Wagner with a grinding, defensively inspired semifinal victory.  In the end, Andy Toole's team fell just short in the finals, but it was another impressive effort nonetheless.  Robert Morris has now averaged more than 14 NEC victories in each of the past 5 seasons, and with a roster that only graduates Lawrence Bridges, the Colonials will once again be part of the NEC elite moving forward.

2.  Wagner Seahawks, 25-6 (15-3 NEC)

The media darlings of the Northeast Conference did everything this season except win the NEC regular season and postseason championship, and it dearly cost them.  25 wins, 12 of which were on the road, and a non-conference record of 9-2, just wasn’t enough to warrant a NIT invite.  Perhaps as a result (although I’m guessing $4 million dollars played a slightly larger role), the Hurley brothers left to coach the University of Rhode Island.  Hurley’s departure however, didn’t scare off the top notch recruits coming to Wagner next season, as both Eric Fanning and Dwuan Anderson have allegedly remain committed to Seahawk basketball.  Pair them with NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz, All-NEC 2nd Teamer Latif Rivers and young big men Mario Moody and Naofall Folahan and you have a scary good lineup.  The transaction next season won’t be seamless, especially with the departure of the underrated Tyler Murray, but Wagner should again compete for the NEC title, as long as the youngest coach in college basketball Bashir Mason can pick up where Dan Hurley left off.

1.  Long Island University Blackbirds, 25-9 (16-2 NEC)

It was another remarkable season for Jim Ferry’s Blackbirds, as LIU dominated their NEC opponents by averaging 1.10 points per offensive possession.  As great as NEC Player of the Year Julian Boyd and All-NEC 1st Teamer Jamal Olasewere were in the front-court, it was super sophomore Jason Brickman that catalyzed the mastery of LIU’s offense.  Brickman was fifth in the nation with 7.3 assists per game and he -- along with back-court mate Michael Culpo -- shot 38.4% from behind the arc.  Throw in slasher C.J. Garner, and you have an offensive juggernaut that ultimately pushed LIU to their second straight NCAA tournament.  There’s little chance of regression since the Blackbirds only lose Culpo to graduation with the core of Boyd, Olasewere, and Brickman still in tact.  Sure, the Blackbird’s 26 game home winning streak will probably be snapped at some point next season, but the back-to-back NEC champions still have one last run in them before the roster is turned over.

You can follow Pioneer Pride for Sacred Heart and Northeast Conference men's basketball updates on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Long Island University dominates Robert Morris to Earn Back-to-Back NEC Championships

Long Island University star forward Jamal Olasewere entered the press conference room, with an understandably wide grin, telling the members of the media to ask his point guard Jason Brickman a question. “You need to make him talk,” Olasewere joked.

The shy point guard may be a reserved person off the court (a la Ryan Peters circa 1994), but on the court, Brickman’s assertive, fantastic play was a major reason why his teammates were sitting at the press conference table tonight with the Northeast Conference trophy by their side.

Olasewere certainly agreed.  “He’s the captain behind this ship.  He’s a coach on the floor.  And he controls the game, night in and night out.  He does his thing on the court, and without him we couldn’t have done this. He’s a great point guard.”

NEC Player of the Year and NEC Tournament MVP Julian Boyd was even more complimentary.  “I definitely wouldn’t have gotten Player of the Year without him (Brickman).  The way he distributes the ball on the court and still scores, it’s amazing.”  At the end, Boyd jokingly added, “I love the guy, but just for now.”

There’s certainly plenty to love if you’re a Blackbird’s player or fan.  Brickman’s 11 assists last night were a NEC finals record and his 29 assists were a NEC Tournament record.  The sophomore All-NEC Second Team selection was consistently driving by the Joneses of Robert Morris, Lucky and Velton, to create plays both on the fast break and in the half-court set.

In the first minute of the game, All-NEC First Team Selection Velton Jones hit the deck hard, after scoring the first points of the game on a contested layup defended by Boyd.  Jones stayed on the floor for 5 minutes before getting up gingerly under his own power.  It was a sign of the rough night ahead for Robert Morris.

Early on however, the Colonials got off to a fast start, thanks mainly to Coron Williams and Mike McFaddan, but a Blackbirds 13-0 and 20-5 run midway through the first half, led by Brickman’s playmaking of course, gave them a lead they would never relinquish.

In the second half, despite some attempts by Robert Morris to chip away at the deficit, LIU kept making big time plays to keep the lead at double digits.  One play in particular, nearly brought down the Wellness Recreation Athletic Center.

On another fast break, CJ Garner decided it was a good idea to hoist a more than half-court pass near the rim toward a driving Julian Boyd.  The perfectly placed pass was received by Boyd in mid-air, who then emphatically slammed it home, sending the sellout crowd into a frenzy.  Immediately after the dunk, Boyd pointed toward the front row, directing his attention to the most famous celebrity at this game, Spike Lee.

It was a fitting way to end a spectular night, and season, for Boyd.  The NEC Regular Season and Tournament MVP finished the game with his patented double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds.  

So how did this dominant performance by LIU happen?  Robert Morris head coach Andy Toole explains. “We tried to play LIU basketball better than LIU.  We have to play the game in the 60s, that’s where we live.  We didn’t do a very good job in the start of the game, the game was played in their speed and style, and we weren’t very successful.”

The tempo, coupled with other factors, certainly led to the Colonial demise.  They were as follows:

1) The aforementioned inability of Robert Morris to contain Jason Brickman.  Brickman set the tempo early, with 6 points and 7 assists in the first half, despite having a defensive stud in Velton Jones guarding him much of the time. Brickman impressively finished with 18 points (8 for 8 at the free throw line), 11 assists, and 3 rebounds.

2) The inability of Robert Morris to hit open outside shots.  The Colonials had plenty of opportunities to get back into the game with the trifecta, but it wasn’t meant to be.  Robert Morris missed 21 of their 26 three-point attempts, led by a 0 for 6 three-point shooting performance by Jones.

3) LIU outscored Robert Morris at the free throw line, 31-14.  In the end, a bloated Robert Morris foul total was exasperated by an ill-fated comeback attempt, but make no mistake, 32 personal fouls against the NEC leader in free throw production, usually won’t lead to success.  The 32 fouls was a season high for Robert Morris.

In the end, the LIU students for a second straight year rushed the court, in celebration of another NEC Tournament Championship and a repeat appearance in the NCAA Tournament.  With any luck, the Blackbirds might be placed on the 15-line (c’mon tournament committee, have some love for the Blackbirds!), and draw a #2 seeded opponent like Michigan State, Duke or Missouri in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

For Robert Morris, an NIT bid is possible, but most likely not probable.  Instead, they may have to post $30K to play in the CIT or CBI, which should give Andy Toole’s players valuable experience heading into the 2012-2013 season.

And finally for this blogger, it was one remarkable experience for me, since I got to pretend that I was an important member of the media for a night.  Sure, my laptop was almost trampled when a LIU student jumped the press pass table to rush the court, but otherwise it was a night I would never forgot.  Hopefully, there are many more in my future.

The In-Depth Northeast Conference Semifinal Game Previews!

On Thursday night, with all due respect to St. Francis, there weren’t any upsets in the first round of the Northeast Conference tournament.  In fact, it’s now clear that the 4 best teams in the conference are left in the semifinals, which should make for some terrific competitive basketball.  Below, I offer game previews for each of the semifinal match-ups.  I wish I wasn’t stuck here in Maryland for the weekend, but I will be present at the NEC finals on Wednesday night, which I absolutely can’t wait for!

NEC Semifinals - #5 seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats (18-12, 11-8 NEC) at #1 seeded Long Island Blackbirds (23-8, 17-2 NEC)

Background:  LIU swept the season series, despite getting badly out-rebounded in both contests, 98-62.  In their first meeting, Quinnipiac grabbed a staggering 60 rebounds, which was their season high.  Nevertheless, the Blackbirds overcame the wide rebounding margin with more efficient shooting and by sinking an average of 6 more free throws per game than the Bobcats.  As is usually the case against NEC competition, Jamal Olasewere and Julian Boyd averaged a combined 36 points and 18 rebounds in both contests. 

Keys to the Game:

1) Control the Pace of the Game

For LIU, the pace of the game doesn’t matter much.  Their offense will succeed either way, as they possess players like Jason Brickman, Olasewere, and Boyd that can either push the tempo or run an efficient half-court set.  In Quinnipiac’s case however, playing a game at a faster tempo doesn’t usually translate into success.  When Quinnipiac averages less than 68 possessions per game, they are 10-1 this season and 7-1 versus the NEC.  These numbers certainly make sense, since Quinnipiac’s big forwards prefer a more physical brand of basketball in the half court set.

2) Defend the Perimeter

This was a key of the game from LIU’s first round match-up against Sacred Heart, and for good reason.  With their first round victory, LIU now has a 17-1 record when shooting better than 36% from behind the three-point line.  James Johnson, Dave Johnson, and Zaid Hearst need to focus their attention on guarding Michael Culpo and Brickman, or they’ll be victimized by the three-point shot much like they were in the previous two meetings.  On the flip side, it would be prudent for Jim Ferry to find a way to stop Quinnipiac’s team leader and leading scorer James Johnson.  A quick start from Johnson could go a long way to helping the Bobcats believe they can pull off the upset.  So, how big of a key is Johnson’s performance this Sunday?  Well in 8 conference losses this season, Johnson is averaging 12.5 points (4.1 ppg under his season average) on an unproductive 39 for 121 (32%) shooting.

3) Get to the Free Throw Line

Quinnipiac needs to match LIU’s production at the free throw line.  They can do so by simply being more aggressive, slashing to the hole and doing their best not to settle for contested jump shots.  A more aggressive style could put LIU’s big men in foul trouble as well, which would obviously benefit the Bobcats.  If you’re the Blackbirds, getting to the line 25 times should be the goal.

Prediction:  Quinnipiac will come ready to play in Brooklyn, however LIU has been on this stage before, and I believe their previous experiences will guide them to a close victory and a return trip to the NEC finals.  Jim Ferry sweats this one out, but in the end, LIU’s success at the free throw line late gets them the win.  Long Island 82, Quinnipiac 78.

NEC Semifinals - #3 Robert Morris Colonials (23-9, 14-5 NEC) at #2 Wagner Seahawks (25-5, 16-3 NEC)

Background:  In their lone meeting this past February, the hosting Seahawks used a quick start in the first half to coast to a 80-69 victory over the Colonials.  In the game, Wagner made an incredible 34 free throws on only 40 attempts and held Robert Morris to 43% shooting and 0.93 points per possession.

Keys to the Game:

1) Defend, Defend, and Defend for All 40 Minutes

This key of the game is mainly directed to Andy Toole’s team, since the Colonials sometimes fell into the ugly habit of suffering from defensive lapses in certain games.  In their last meeting with Wagner, Robert Morris failed to defend early on, which inevitably cost them the game.  It’s a tall order, but if the Colonials can hold Wagner to less than 0.94 points per possession, then their chances of success exponentially go up.  How much so?  Robert Morris is 16-0 this season when they defend to that level.  Conversely, the magic number for Wagner’s defense should be 69 points.  When they hold opponents to that number, they have yet to lose this season (19-0).

2) Take Away the Long Range Jumper

What do you know, another key to the game is centered around defense!  This isn’t a mistake – defensive pressure and creating turnovers is what makes each of these teams tick.  Specifically, when opponents have limited Wagner’s production from behind the arc, they’ve had a fighting chance for victory.  Sure, five losses is a small sample size, but in those games, Wagner hasn’t shot better than 32% from three-point range.  With those stats, you can bet that Velton Jones, Lucky Jones and company will do their best to make life difficult for sharpshooters Tyler Murray and Latif Rivers.  For Wagner, you can expect NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz to pester Velton Jones all afternoon.

3) Get to the Free Throw Line As Much As Possible

One of the better ways to attack the Wagner defense is to make them foul you at a high rate.  One of the Seahawk’s few weaknesses this season, is avoiding the foul.  With the NEC leading free-throw producer on the other team in Velton Jones, it would certainly behoove Jones, and others, to drive to the bucket more often than not.  That way, free points at the line could help spell those offensive droughts Robert Morris has a tendency to fall into.  For Wagner, they stand in the top 3 of the NEC in free throw production, mainly because guards like Rivers and Tyler Murray, and Chris Martin are virtually automatic at the charity stripe.  Winning the free throw battle can go a long way toward playing for the championship next Wednesday night.

Prediction:  This game could go either way, but I’m sticking to my prediction at the beginning of the season of Wagner making the NEC finals  In an ugly, defensive-minded battle at the Spiro Center, I believe the Seahwak's pressure defense and home crowd will be the difference.  Just please be prepared for the media coverage of the Hurley brothers leading up to the NEC Championship game.  The coverage may get nauseating for you Wagner haters.  Wagner 64, Robert Morris 61.

It should be a fantastic duo of games.  Enjoy NEC Semifinal Sunday!

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

Northeast Conference 1st Round Playoff Preview!

On Thursday evening, the Sacred Heart Pioneers return to the Northeast Conference postseason for the first time since losing to Mount St. Mary’s in the semifinals of the 2009 NEC tournament.  Their qualification into the postseason isn’t due to a major improvement from last year, in fact this season marks the third straight year of Sacred Heart having a losing conference record.  As a result, the Pioneers will find themselves in Brooklyn on Thursday night, taking on the defending NEC champions, the Long Island Blackbirds.  The same Long Island Blackbirds that have won 24 home games in a row at the WRAC.  Yay…

Before the playoff match-up, I decided to preview the elimination game, since Thursday may be the last time we get to witness Sacred Heart basketball before November (sorry but I don't think the NIT is calling Dave Bike).  I also briefly previewed and predicted the outcome of the other three NEC first round games.

NEC 1^st Round – #8 seeded Sacred Heart Pioneers (14-17, 8-10 NEC) at #1 seeded Long Island Blackbirds (22-8, 16-2 NEC)

Background:  The Blackbirds swept the season series, but had to earn each victory, with the latter game going to overtime after Shane Gibson hit back-to-back three-pointers late in regulation.  The NEC Player of the Year Julian Boyd and his front-court mate Jamal Olasewere have been dominant against the thin Pioneer front-court, combining for an average of 44 points and 22 rebounds per game.  The Sacred Heart duo of Shane Gibson and Justin Swidowski has been nearly as impressive in defeat, tallying an average of 49 points per game.  Swidowski has easily enjoyed his two best games of the season against LIU.

Keys to the Game:

1) Frontcourt Players Must Stay Out of Foul Trouble

Boyd, Olasewere, and Swidowski have all occasionally had issues staying on the court, due to foul trouble.  It would certainly behoove Sacred Heart to attack Boyd and Olasewere on the defensive end early, in the hope of putting either guy in foul trouble and forcing Jim Ferry to give valuable minutes to LIU back-up forward Kenny Onyechi.  Swidowski, on the other hand, has to log more than 28 minutes for the Pioneers to have a shot at pulling off the upset.  A couple of early fouls from Swidowski could place the Pioneers in a first half hole they’d have no chance to get out of, especially against a LIU team that scores an extraordinary 1.10 points per possession.

2) Get Significant Contributions from Secondary Players

Gibson, Olasewere, and Boyd should undoubtedly get their points.  How much production comes from each team’s supporting cast however, may very well swing the outcome of the game.  For Sacred Heart this season, a well-balanced scoring attack has been practically nonexistent, with no one from the Swidowski, Louis Montes, Evan Kelley, and Chris Evans group providing a consistent effort from game to game.  Someone from that group needs to produce to give Sacred Heart a fighting chance.  On the defensive end, the Pioneers need to contain the guards of LIU, specifically Michael Culpo and CJ Garner.  This season, the slashing Garner has torched the Pioneers for 38 points, to go along with 8 assists in both games. 

3) Defend the Perimeter

When Michael Culpo and Jason Brickman are hitting their three-point shots, LIU is damn near impossible to beat.  The statistics frankly don’t lie – LIU is 16-1 on the season when they shoot 36% or better from beyond the arc.  The guard heavy Pioneers also enjoy success when they’re efficient from long range, as they’re 12-6 when hitting more than 35% of their threes (and 2-11 when they don’t).  Perimeter defense should play a major role, but quite simply, the Pioneers probably need to make a bunch of long range bombs to stay competitive.

4) Protect the Basketball

Against NEC competition, the Blackbirds have done a much better job protecting the basketball.  Early in the season, they were plagued by turnovers.  Since then, Jason Brickman and company have taken care of the ball and it’s no coincidence that LIU is 15-1 when their turnover rate is less than 22% (the national average is approximately 20%).  Why do you think Monmouth was so successful in the season finale against LIU?  King Rice’s feisty bunch took the ball away from the Blackbirds 23 times in the game.  As for the Pioneers, it will be difficult to keep up with the highly efficient LIU attack if they turn over the ball more than 12 times on Thursday.

Prediction:  The loss to Monmouth in the season finale was just what the doctor ordered for Jim Ferry, as it gives his team a wake up call before they embark on their quest for a second straight NEC championship.  I think Sacred Heart hangs with LIU early, but by the middle of the second half, the Blackbirds will have a comfortable lead.  Gibson will leave Brooklyn firing, but it won’t be nearly enough.  Long Island 90, Sacred Heart 75.

NEC 1^st Round - #6 seeded Monmouth Hawks (12-19, 10-8 NEC) at #3 seeded Robert Morris Colonials (22-9, 13-5 NEC)

King Rice’s Monmouth Hawks were considered by some as the team no one wants to play in the tournament, but my guess is that Robert Morris head coach Andy Toole breathed a sign of relief when he learned his team would avoid Quinnipiac in the first round.  It was recently noted in John Templon’s NEC Tempo Free Primer that Monmouth has been a tad fortunate with their record, but I think their luck stops in Moon Township, PA.  Velton Jones and company grind out a hard fought victory in round one to give Andy Toole his 6th career NEC playoff victory in 7 tries.  Robert Morris 64, Monmouth 58.

NEC 1^st Round - #7 seeded Central Connecticut Blue Devils (13-15, 10-8 NEC) at #2 seeded Wagner Seahawks (24-5, 15-3 NEC)

Now that Ken Horton is back to playing like, well Ken Horton, the Blue Devils are a dangerous first round opponent.  Horton was held to a season low 7 points against Wagner in their first meeting, but he exploded for 22 points, 5 blocks, and 4 steals in their second contest.  The question is, how much was Wagner really trying in the meaningless season finale?  Whatever the answer, if Dan Hurley’s Seahawks play their patented pressure defensive, the offensively challenged Blue Devils will struggle mightily.  In fact, CCSU is 1-8 against NEC competition when scoring less than 1 point per possession.  My guess is NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz and company will give the Blue Devils fits.  Horton will get his points, but Vinales and Ptacek will each have bad shooting nights.  Wagner 71, Central Connecticut 62.

NEC 1^st Round - #5 seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats (17-12, 10-8 NEC) at #4 seeded St. Francis Terriers (15-14, 12-6 NEC)

These are two teams heading in different directions come tourney time.  Unfortunately for Glenn Braica’s Terriers, Stefan Perunicic and Travis Nichols are banged up and will be game-time decisions.  Even if they play, how much can they produce against a physical Quinnipiac team that has won 7 of their last 10 games?  The two things to focus on for the game is how well can St. Francis shoot it from behind the arc and will the Bobcats have their way on the boards.  My guess is that Tom Moore will have his guys focused solely on keeping rookie sensation Jalen Cannon away from the offensive glass.  Expect big games from NEC 2nd Teamers Ike Azotam and James Johnson in this down to the wire battle.  Quinnipiac 67, St. Francis 64.

You can follow Pioneer Pride on Twitter at @pioneer_pride

The State of the Northeast Conference With Two Weeks Left

With only four regular season games remaining for each Northeast Conference team, it’s an excellent time to break down the standings and look ahead to the final matchups.  Below I laid out the current NEC standings in tiers, went over the tiebreakers, and outlined the likelihood of each team’s potential playoff seed.  For simplicity, I removed both Bryant and Fairleigh Dickinson from the bottom of the standings, since neither will be playing postseason basketball in two weeks.

RANK/TEAM                         CONF W-L                     KEY GAMES LEFT

1) LIU                                           13-1                            vs. QU, SHU, at MU

2) Wagner                                     12-2                             vs. MU

- LIU owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (2-0)

With their sweep over Brooklyn rival St. Francis, LIU is in good shape to capture the regular season title and that coveted home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  Only two more challenging games remain, both of which are at the WRAC.  Even if LIU splits that set, Wagner still needs to win out and hope for LIU to get upset by Monmouth or FDU.  That scenario seems unlikely.

3) St. Francis (NY)                      10-4                              at QU, MU, vs. SHU

4) Robert Morris                          10-4                              vs. CCSU, at SHU, QU

- St. Francis owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

A month ago, Glenn Braica’s Terriers validated their legitimacy with a convincing upset win against an inconsistent Robert Morris squad.  Now, barring a collapse from either team and an improbable end-of-season sweep from Quinnipiac, both teams will host a playoff game in the first round.  Should either advance, they’ll certainly serve as a dangerous opponent for LIU or Wagner in the semifinals.

5) Quinnipiac                                8-6                              at LIU, vs. SFNY, SFPA, RMU

6) Monmouth                                7-7                              at Wag, MSM, vs. LIU, SFNY

7) Central Connecticut                  7-7                              at RMU, SFPA, vs. Wag, MSM

8) Sacred Heart                             7-7                              at LIU, SFNY, vs. RMU, SFPA

- Monmouth owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head-to-head records (MU 2-0, CCSU 1-2, SHU 1-2)

- CCSU own tiebreaker on SHU based on better common record vs. Robert Morris (CCSU 1-0, SHU 0-1)

Quinnipiac is quickly turning into the lower seeded opponent no one wants to play in the NEC tournament.  As noted in Big Apple Buckets, Quinnipiac’s improved defense has sparked a 6-1 record in their past seven games.  Monmouth will have difficultly holding the #6 seed, thanks to their difficult end of season schedule.  Their only saving grace may be that the schedules of CCSU and Sacred Heart are equally as difficult.  CCSU is fortunate there’s significant space between the 8th and 9th teams in the standings, because Howie Dickerman’s Blue Devils are heading the wrong direction, mainly due to their offensive inefficiency.  Once considered to be a NEC title contender, CCSU is presently looking at a difficult first round road showdown against LIU or Wagner.  That’s not what Dickerman envisioned for this roster in the preseason.

9) Mount St. Mary’s                       4-10                              at CCSU, vs. MU  

10) St. Francis (PA)                        4-10                              vs. CCSU, at QU, SHU

- Mount St. Mary’s owns tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (1-0)

If you believe in miracles, then perhaps you think these teams have a fighting chance to sneak into the top 8 at season’s end.  St. Francis’s playoff starts on Thursday night, with a date at home against the aforementioned Blue Devils.  A win and their faint hopes are still alive, yet a loss extinguishes that dream.  Mount St. Mary’s is equally as desperate, and it’s very unlikely the Mountaineers will experience an offensive resurgence to catapult them into the NEC tournament.  They do conclude the season with an easy stretch of games, but significant help is still needed from above to grab that #8 seed.  I wouldn't bet on that.

All in all, the playoff qualifiers and regular season champion is close to being decided, but these final two weeks will certainly create some excellent first round match-ups in the NEC tournament.

First Annual Pioneer Pride Northeast Conference Predictions

With the non-conference schedule complete for all Northeast Conference teams, now is a perfect opportunity to post my NEC Season Predictions.  I bet you won’t find these anywhere else!  I rank all of the teams in tiers, provide a brief summary, and attempt to predict each team’s final record and playoff destination.  This is my first year in covering the NEC, so I’d love to read your comments if you agree or disagree with my predictions in any way.  And now, without further ado…

Get Your Shoes Ready, Because You May Be Going to the Big Dance!

1) Robert Morris (16-2 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, NIT bound)

Andy Toole’s Colonials, fresh off an unusual upset over Ohio University in which they committed 31 turnovers and 24 personal fouls, head back into conference play in very good shape.  The unbalanced schedule is kind to them, as they only play Wagner, LIU, and Central Connecticut once this season.  They can defend, rebound, and go nine deep, especially with the recent addition of 6-foot-8 forward Mike McFadden.  I think they’ll quietly snap up the number one seed, only to be upset in the conference semis.

2) Wagner (15-3 regular season, NEC Tournament Champion, NCAA 14 seed)

I’m not sure who has been more loved in the New York area lately – Dan Hurley or Victor Cruz.  Hurley and his Wagner Seahawks have been the talk of the town since their upset victories over Pitt and Santa Clara, even though their early loss to LIU may eventually prevent them from earning the NEC regular season title.  Nonetheless, Wagner’s guards Kenneth Ortiz, Latif Rivers, and Tyler Murray are very efficient and are complimented with a strong low-block presence in 6-foot-11 Neofall Folahan, who leads the NEC with 2 rejections per game.  I think they’ll represent the NEC in the NCAA tourney (as do most people), but at the very worst, they’ll be NIT bound should they fall to LIU or Robert Morris along the way.

Don’t Count Them Out, They Could Be Dangerous

3) Long Island University (13-5 regular season, NEC Semifinalist, CBI/CIT bound)

The high-flying Blackbirds are the most proficient offense in the NEC, averaging a staggering 77 points per game.  They have efficient players that can excel both in the half court and in transition, especially when point guard Jason Brickman dishes the rock without turning it over.  LIU’s big man, Julian Boyd, has been a beast of late, averaging 21 points and 11 rebounds in the past 6 games.  So what is preventing them from going all the way?  They allow as many points as they score per game (77 ppg) and they turn the ball over way too much, with a turnover margin of minus-4.  If they can defend and protect the ball just a little, then perhaps they’ll successfully defend their NEC title and return to the dance.

4) Quinnipiac University (11-7 regular season, NEC First Round)

In their current 5 game winning streak, Tom Moore’s Bobcats have been playing inspired ball on the glass (what else is new) and on the defensive end.  Their young front court depth has been impressive and if Ousmane Drame continues to progress, he’ll be a force to reckon with in the paint.  Throw in leading NEC rebounder Ike Azotam, Jamee Jackson, and freshman Marquis Barnett, and the Bobcats have possibly the deepest front-court around.  For now though, Quinnipiac simply needs to shoot the ball better.  Senior James Johnson can’t do all of the scoring by himself.

5) Central Connecticut State (11-7 regular season, NEC Finalist)

The Blue Devils have slumped of late by losing five straight, but I’m not counting out their scoring trio of Ken Horton, Kyle Vinales, and Robby Ptacek.  Sure, Howie Dickerman’s club has absolutely no depth to speak of, but together the three stars are averaging a mind numbing 59.7 points per game and make up 77.2% of the team’s scoring.  If all three are healthy and firing on all cylinders come playoff time, the Miami Heat of the NEC (ok, maybe that’s a little stretch) will be a very tough out.

6) Sacred Heart University (10-8 regular season, NEC First Round)

I reluctantly placed my Pioneers at the bottom of this tier, even though I’m skeptical that Dave Bike’s roster can make a run at the conference.  They’ve got the star guard (Shane Gibson) and low-block scorer (Justin Swidowski), but as I explained before, they need contributions elsewhere to have a chance.  I can certainly see an upset win or two over a top tier team, but I’m not sure if they can sustain a high level over several games, due to the inconsistency of Evan Kelley, Chris Evans, and Louis Montes and the mostly nonathletic front-court.

Could Make a Little Noise, But Won’t Factor In the Postseason

7) St. Francis, NY (9-9 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Terriers, after a difficult start, have righted the ship to go 4-5 in their last 9 games.  You'll find them in the middle of the NEC statistically in most categories, as they have a balanced attacked with nine players registering double digits in points per 40 minutes.  They don't seem to have that one go-to-guy however, so it remains to be seen how they will succeed in close games.  One key to their success is freshman forward Jalen Cannon (averaging an impressive 7.2 rebounds per game), as his continued improvement should help determine the Terriers fate.

8) St. Francis, PA (7-11 regular season, NEC First Round)

The Red Flash back-court suffered two critical blows to their season within a month.  First of all, leading scorer Umar Shannon was lost for the year due to a ACL injury.  Then a month later, leading assist man Chris Johnson was kicked off the team for violating team rules.  That is worse luck than this poor sap! (FYI - skip ahead to the 0:40 second mark)  Don’t be fooled by the Red Flash’s 2-0 NEC record, since they beat Monmouth and FDU at home.  The schedule gets more difficult in a hurry with matchups against CCSU, Sacred Heart, and Quinnipiac in 3 of the next 4 games.

It’s Gonna Be a Really Long Season

9) Mount St. Marys (6-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Mount St. Mary’s has defended well the past 5 games, yet only have one win to show for it, thanks to a woeful effort on the offensive side of the ball.  Currently, there are in the bottom 15% of the nation in scoring, rebounds and shooting percentage.  Despite these hideous stats, one fourth of the league is even more hideous, so the Mount’s respectable defense should give them a few conference wins to build on for next season.

10) Monmouth University (4-12 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

Since getting bashed by St. Francis (PA) and Robert Morris, Monmouth has played better basketball of late, which certainly isn’t saying much.  When your team is dead last in the NEC in scoring margin (minus-20), effective field goal percentage, and effective field goal percentage defense, bad things are going to happen.  5-foot-8 junior guard Jesse Steele and 6-foot-6 freshman guard Andrew Nicholas have been the lone bright spots for the Hawks.  (And now I’m done saying nice things about the bottom feeders of the NEC.  Moving along…)

11) Fairleigh Dickenson (3-15 regular season, fails to qualify for NEC tournament)

What is there really to say?  Picked last in the NEC Preseason Coaches Poll, the Knights of Fairleigh Dickinson have played two games so far – yes two games – where they didn’t lose by double digits.  The roster, filled with mostly juniors and seniors, has quite frankly no future, both a year from now and three years from now.

12) Bryant University (3-15 regular season, ineligible for NEC tournament)

After flirting with conference respectability last season, Bryant University is back to their familiar  position as a cellar dweller.  They’ve been punished in their past 11 games, falling by an average of 17 points per game.  At this point, call it a moral victory if the Bulldogs can half their win total from last year.  Or win a game on the road.

Was Wagner's Victory Over Pitt the Greatest in NEC History?

I began my holiday vacation last Friday evening by witnessing Dan Hurley’s Wagner Seahawks surprisingly defeat the Pittsburgh Panthers, 59-54.  Wagner’s tenacious defense and composed guard play from Kenneth Ortiz, Tyler Murray, and Latif Rivers proved to be the difference and set Twitter a buzz later that night.  Compliments and praise galore was showered Wagner’s way, and rightfully so.  There was one statement on the Twitter machine however, that had me scratching my head – “Wagner’s win tonight is the greatest win in the history of the NEC.”

Was this true?  Sure, beating a Big East team on the road is a lofty achievement for almost any school, but I wanted to do some research to determine if the above statement was in fact valid.  So thanks to www.bbstate.com, I was able to sift through the Northeast Conference’s 30 years of games to find you the greatest wins in the conference’s history.   I know what you’re thinking, “But Ryan, how much time did you invest on this one blog post?  It must have taken forever!”

Not really.  In fact before I proceed with the brief history lesson (don’t worry this isn’t a history lesson on the Renaissance or the Roman Empire you dreaded in 8th grade), here are some sobering statistics to illustrate how easy it was for me to pick out the notable wins:

-       The NEC is the only existing conference to have never won a first round match in the NCAA tourney (The NEC has 3 NCAA tourney wins to their credit, however all 3 were in the play-in rounds, with the last one coming from Mount St. Mary’s in 2008)

-       The following NEC schools have never defeated a team ranked in the RPI Top 50 in its history – Sacred Heart (sigh), Fairleigh Dickinson, Quinnipiac, Bryant, Central Connecticut, Wagner, Long Island, St. Francis (NY), and Robert Morris (this surprised me a little)

Without further ado, here are the top 5 biggest wins in the Northeast Conference history:

5) Monmouth defeated St. Joseph’s (RPI 41), 71-62 on Dec 1994

I wish I could say this is the year that St. Joes made their remarkable run with Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, but I’m about 9 years off.  And Monmouth was still a year away before securing a 13 seed in the NCAA tourney by winning their first ever NEC crown.  So why is this fairly pedestrian win on the list?  Because it’s the NEC, that’s why!

4) Monmouth defeated Southern Illinois (RPI 29), 80-68 on Nov 2005

Where were you when you heard Monmouth had upset mid-major power Southern Illinois in the first round of the famous Great Alaskan Shootout?  (Silence….) Yeah, I don’t remember either...

3) Robert Morris (15 seed) lost to Villanova (2 seed), 73-70 in OT in first round of 2009-2010 NCAA Tournament on March 2010

Ok, I just broke the rule of my sacred list by selecting a losing game, but in terms of giving the NEC much needed notoriety, this game could be at the top.  Robert Morris, fresh off a hard fought NEC finals victory over Quinnipiac, nearly pulled off the unthinkable by losing to Big East power Villanova in OT by 3 points (and giving everyone who picked Nova as a Final Four team in their NCAA bracket a near heart attack in the process).  Despite the heartbreaking loss, I’m sure people were at least Googling questions like, “where the hell is Robert Morris?” and “who the hell is Robert Morris?” and “is Mike Rice a good coaching candidate to fix my mediocre D1 basketball team?” during the game.

(Side Note – Rutgers won the Mike Rice sweepstakes after the 2009-2010 season ended.  They are still mediocre, yet the jury is still out on whether Rice can turn the club around)

2) Wagner defeated Pittsburg (RPI 70), 59-54 on Dec 2011

Who cares if Pitt: A) lost to another mid major school in Long Beach State this season and B) is currently a NCAA Tourney bubble team at best.  It was an impressive win nonetheless, as Wagner managed to hold Pitt to season lows in points per possession (0.89) and effective field goal percentage (41.7%).  And after watching Dan Hurley’s masterpiece on ESPNU, one thing is for certain - Sacred Heart doesn’t have a freaking chance to win the NEC.

1) Mount St. Mary’s defeated Georgia Tech (RPI 9) on the road, 71-69 on Dec 1995

Number 1 on my list is the only time a NEC squad has upended a team ranked in the RPI Top 10.  The Mountaineers, who won a school record 16 regular season conference games that season en route to a NIT bid, took down Georgia Tech, led by legendary coach Bobby Cremins and guard Stephon Marbury (sorry, but I refuse to call Marbury a POINT guard).  Georgia Tech would later fall to Cincinnati in the Sweet 16, thus validating Mount St. Mary’s monumental non-conference achievement.

Did I miss a noteworthy moment for the NEC?  Please let me know in the comments!